Brasileirão Serie B
Vila Nova FC
Gastgeber
VS
Cuiabá
Gast
08.10.2026 02:30
Heimsieg
1.81
Unentschieden
3.10
Auswärtssieg
4.50
KI-Prognose
1: 52%
X: 28%
2: 20%
Goals over 2.5: 34%
Goals under 2.5: 66%
Corners over 9.5: 52%
Corners under 9.5: 48%
Cards over 5: 42%
Cards under 5: 58%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Cuiabá have been the slightly stronger side in recent years overall, but this matchup tends to be tight and low-scoring; Vila Nova’s home advantage matters a lot here.
- **Match type:** Regular-season league game (not a friendly) in a late round (Matchday 32) → higher tactical caution and points-driven approach.
- **Injuries / suspensions:** No confirmed absences provided; without verified team news, this is treated as neutral and increases uncertainty around rotations.
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Vila Nova avoid travel and typically benefit from home conditions; Cuiabá face travel load and normal late-season congestion risk, slightly lowering the away win probability.
- **H2H and style signals:** Last 5 H2H: 1 home win, 2 draws, 2 away wins; **average total goals 1.8** and recent results include 1-0, 0-0, 2-2 → strong lean to **Under 2.5** and “BTTS No” type dynamics.
- **Importance / motivation:** Late-season round increases the chance of risk management (not over-committing), reinforcing lower goal expectation and more draw protection.
- **Odds check:** Bookmakers price the home side clearly shorter (1.81 vs 4.50), implying ~51–55% home win after margin; the 1X2 probabilities above broadly align, while totals pricing (Under 2.5 at 1.48) supports the strong Under lean.
X: 28%
2: 20%
Goals over 2.5: 34%
Goals under 2.5: 66%
Corners over 9.5: 52%
Corners under 9.5: 48%
Cards over 5: 42%
Cards under 5: 58%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Cuiabá have been the slightly stronger side in recent years overall, but this matchup tends to be tight and low-scoring; Vila Nova’s home advantage matters a lot here.
- **Match type:** Regular-season league game (not a friendly) in a late round (Matchday 32) → higher tactical caution and points-driven approach.
- **Injuries / suspensions:** No confirmed absences provided; without verified team news, this is treated as neutral and increases uncertainty around rotations.
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Vila Nova avoid travel and typically benefit from home conditions; Cuiabá face travel load and normal late-season congestion risk, slightly lowering the away win probability.
- **H2H and style signals:** Last 5 H2H: 1 home win, 2 draws, 2 away wins; **average total goals 1.8** and recent results include 1-0, 0-0, 2-2 → strong lean to **Under 2.5** and “BTTS No” type dynamics.
- **Importance / motivation:** Late-season round increases the chance of risk management (not over-committing), reinforcing lower goal expectation and more draw protection.
- **Odds check:** Bookmakers price the home side clearly shorter (1.81 vs 4.50), implying ~51–55% home win after margin; the 1X2 probabilities above broadly align, while totals pricing (Under 2.5 at 1.48) supports the strong Under lean.