Granada Club de Fútbol

1: 49%
X: 28%
2: 23%
Goals over 2.5: 44%
Goals under 2.5: 56%
Corners over 9.5: 52%
Corners under 9.5: 48%
Cards over 5: 32%
Cards under 5: 68%
Penalty: 15-20%

**Explanation (concise):**
- **Squad strength/quality:** Granada rate slightly higher at home in Segunda-type matchups (more control and chance creation), while Eibar are competitive but typically less effective away. Overall gap is moderate, not huge.
- **Match context:** This is an **official league game** (regular season, Matchday 6), so intensity and best available lineups are more likely than in friendlies.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No reliable list provided here, so the forecast assumes “normal” availability; late absences could shift the 1X2 a few points.
- **Home advantage/travel/fatigue:** Clear home edge for Granada; domestic travel for Eibar is manageable and early-season fatigue is usually limited, so only a modest adjustment.
- **H2H & form signal:** Recent head-to-head favors Granada strongly (Granada wins most of the last meetings, including a 2–0 away win and multiple home wins), supporting a 1X lean.
- **Motivation/table:** Early rounds typically mean high urgency for points but not “must-win” desperation; draw probability remains meaningful.
- **Rotations/structural risks:** With no midweek fixture info provided, assume limited rotation; if either side rotates due to schedule, under 2.5 and draw chances rise slightly.
- **Bookmaker odds check:** Market prices (~1.95 / 3.10 / 3.60) imply roughly **49% / 31% / 27%** before margin; I keep **home win similar**, slightly reduce away win and allocate some probability to the draw given league variance and early-season uncertainty.