League Two
Crewe Alexandra
Gastgeber
VS
Rochdale
Gast
17.10.2026 14:00
Heimsieg
1.76
Unentschieden
3.70
Auswärtssieg
3.80
KI-Prognose
1: 52%
X: 26%
2: 22%
Goals over 2.5: 56%
Goals under 2.5: 44%
Corners over 9.5: 57%
Corners under 9.5: 43%
Cards over 5: 28%
Cards under 5: 72%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief reasoning (concise):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Crewe rate slightly higher overall and usually benefit from a clearer home edge; Rochdale are competitive but more volatile away.
- **Match type & motivation:** This is an **official regular-season** fixture (Matchday 11), so normal intensity and points-driven approach—less experimentation than a friendly.
- **Injuries / suspensions:** No confirmed absences provided here, so the forecast assumes close-to-normal availability; this adds some uncertainty around late team news.
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Non-neutral ground favors Crewe; mid-October scheduling can bring mild load management, but nothing in the data indicates extreme travel or congestion.
- **H2H & style signal:** Head-to-head shows many draws and **high average goals (3.6)**, plus frequent BTTS-type outcomes—supporting a slight lean to **Over 2.5** and goals at both ends.
- **Bookmaker odds check:** Market prices (1.76 / 3.7 / 3.8) imply Crewe as a moderate favorite; my 1X2 probabilities broadly align, with a small uplift to Crewe due to home/structure.
- **Corners / cards / penalty:** Expected open phases and crossing/box entries push corners slightly above 9.5; cards trend lower (not a derby, typical EFL level), and penalties stay in the usual 15–20% band.
X: 26%
2: 22%
Goals over 2.5: 56%
Goals under 2.5: 44%
Corners over 9.5: 57%
Corners under 9.5: 43%
Cards over 5: 28%
Cards under 5: 72%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief reasoning (concise):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Crewe rate slightly higher overall and usually benefit from a clearer home edge; Rochdale are competitive but more volatile away.
- **Match type & motivation:** This is an **official regular-season** fixture (Matchday 11), so normal intensity and points-driven approach—less experimentation than a friendly.
- **Injuries / suspensions:** No confirmed absences provided here, so the forecast assumes close-to-normal availability; this adds some uncertainty around late team news.
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Non-neutral ground favors Crewe; mid-October scheduling can bring mild load management, but nothing in the data indicates extreme travel or congestion.
- **H2H & style signal:** Head-to-head shows many draws and **high average goals (3.6)**, plus frequent BTTS-type outcomes—supporting a slight lean to **Over 2.5** and goals at both ends.
- **Bookmaker odds check:** Market prices (1.76 / 3.7 / 3.8) imply Crewe as a moderate favorite; my 1X2 probabilities broadly align, with a small uplift to Crewe due to home/structure.
- **Corners / cards / penalty:** Expected open phases and crossing/box entries push corners slightly above 9.5; cards trend lower (not a derby, typical EFL level), and penalties stay in the usual 15–20% band.