Segunda División
UD Las Palmas
Gastgeber
VS
Burgos Club de Fútbol
Gast
20.09.2026 19:30
Heimsieg
2.03
Unentschieden
3.06
Auswärtssieg
3.67
KI-Prognose
1: 46%
X: 29%
2: 25%
Goals over 2.5: 44%
Goals under 2.5: 56%
Corners over 9.5: 52%
Corners under 9.5: 48%
Cards over 5: 38%
Cards under 5: 62%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength/quality:** Las Palmas rate as the stronger squad on paper (typically higher budget and more top-tier individual quality), giving them a moderate home edge, but not a dominant one. Burgos are usually compact and hard to break down, keeping the away win/draw chances meaningful.
- **Match type & motivation:** This is an **official league match** (Regular season, Matchday 6), so intensity and points-value are high; that supports fewer “experimental” approaches than a friendly.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No confirmed absences provided here, so the forecast assumes close-to-normal availability; late news could shift probabilities (especially if a key creator/striker is missing).
- **Home advantage, travel, schedule & fatigue:** Las Palmas at home is a plus, but Burgos’ travel to the Canary Islands can add a small performance penalty. Early-season timing generally means **lower fatigue** than later rounds, though logistics still matter.
- **H2H & style signal:** Head-to-head is very balanced historically, and the **recent meetings are heavily low-scoring (multiple 0–0s)**, pushing the model slightly toward **Under 2.5** and a non-trivial draw probability.
- **Rotations/structural risks:** With Matchday 6, rotation risk is usually moderate; weather noted as **rain/wind** can reduce game fluidity and finishing efficiency, again nudging toward fewer goals.
- **Bookmakers’ odds:** The market makes Las Palmas a clear but not overwhelming favorite (home win shortest). Converting the odds to implied probabilities and normalizing yields roughly **46/30/25**, which the 1X2 projection closely follows.
X: 29%
2: 25%
Goals over 2.5: 44%
Goals under 2.5: 56%
Corners over 9.5: 52%
Corners under 9.5: 48%
Cards over 5: 38%
Cards under 5: 62%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength/quality:** Las Palmas rate as the stronger squad on paper (typically higher budget and more top-tier individual quality), giving them a moderate home edge, but not a dominant one. Burgos are usually compact and hard to break down, keeping the away win/draw chances meaningful.
- **Match type & motivation:** This is an **official league match** (Regular season, Matchday 6), so intensity and points-value are high; that supports fewer “experimental” approaches than a friendly.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No confirmed absences provided here, so the forecast assumes close-to-normal availability; late news could shift probabilities (especially if a key creator/striker is missing).
- **Home advantage, travel, schedule & fatigue:** Las Palmas at home is a plus, but Burgos’ travel to the Canary Islands can add a small performance penalty. Early-season timing generally means **lower fatigue** than later rounds, though logistics still matter.
- **H2H & style signal:** Head-to-head is very balanced historically, and the **recent meetings are heavily low-scoring (multiple 0–0s)**, pushing the model slightly toward **Under 2.5** and a non-trivial draw probability.
- **Rotations/structural risks:** With Matchday 6, rotation risk is usually moderate; weather noted as **rain/wind** can reduce game fluidity and finishing efficiency, again nudging toward fewer goals.
- **Bookmakers’ odds:** The market makes Las Palmas a clear but not overwhelming favorite (home win shortest). Converting the odds to implied probabilities and normalizing yields roughly **46/30/25**, which the 1X2 projection closely follows.