FA Cup
Chesham United
Gastgeber
VS
Forest Green Rovers
Gast
17.10.2026 14:00
Heimsieg
4.04
Unentschieden
3.91
Auswärtssieg
1.71
KI-Prognose
1: 22%
X: 24%
2: 54%
Goals over 2.5: 56%
Goals under 2.5: 44%
Corners over 9.5: 55%
Corners under 9.5: 45%
Cards over 5: 22%
Cards under 5: 78%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief reasoning (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Forest Green Rovers are priced as clear favorites (1.71 away win), consistent with a stronger squad and higher full-time professional level; Chesham United are underdogs even at home.
- **Match type:** The round label indicates an **official cup qualifier** (not a friendly). That typically reduces heavy experimentation and increases focus from the favorite.
- **Injuries / suspensions:** No reliable team-news is provided here; assume **no major confirmed absences** priced in. Any late withdrawals would mainly increase draw/upsest probability.
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Chesham get home conditions, but Forest Green’s travel is manageable domestically and usually not enough to offset the quality gap. Rotation risk exists for the favorite in qualifiers, but not enough to flip favoritism.
- **H2H / form:** No head-to-head or recent-form data is included, so the estimate leans more on **market odds** and the structural quality gap rather than momentum.
- **Motivation / importance:** As a qualifier, progression matters; Forest Green should prioritize avoiding an upset, while Chesham’s motivation is high but may be limited by depth.
- **Structural risks (rotation):** Forest Green could rotate some starters, which keeps the **draw and home upset** non-trivial (hence 46% combined for 1X).
- **Bookmakers’ odds signal:** Implied probabilities from 4.04 / 3.91 / 1.71 suggest roughly **24% / 25% / 57%** before margin; the forecast is aligned but slightly softened for away-rotation/cup-variance.
- **Goals / corners / cards / penalty:** Odds point toward a game more likely than not to reach **3+ goals** (Over 2.5 at 1.49). Corners slightly lean over due to expected away pressure. Cards are projected under 5 given typical English cup dynamics unless the match becomes scrappy. Penalty chance is moderate (15–20%).
X: 24%
2: 54%
Goals over 2.5: 56%
Goals under 2.5: 44%
Corners over 9.5: 55%
Corners under 9.5: 45%
Cards over 5: 22%
Cards under 5: 78%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief reasoning (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Forest Green Rovers are priced as clear favorites (1.71 away win), consistent with a stronger squad and higher full-time professional level; Chesham United are underdogs even at home.
- **Match type:** The round label indicates an **official cup qualifier** (not a friendly). That typically reduces heavy experimentation and increases focus from the favorite.
- **Injuries / suspensions:** No reliable team-news is provided here; assume **no major confirmed absences** priced in. Any late withdrawals would mainly increase draw/upsest probability.
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Chesham get home conditions, but Forest Green’s travel is manageable domestically and usually not enough to offset the quality gap. Rotation risk exists for the favorite in qualifiers, but not enough to flip favoritism.
- **H2H / form:** No head-to-head or recent-form data is included, so the estimate leans more on **market odds** and the structural quality gap rather than momentum.
- **Motivation / importance:** As a qualifier, progression matters; Forest Green should prioritize avoiding an upset, while Chesham’s motivation is high but may be limited by depth.
- **Structural risks (rotation):** Forest Green could rotate some starters, which keeps the **draw and home upset** non-trivial (hence 46% combined for 1X).
- **Bookmakers’ odds signal:** Implied probabilities from 4.04 / 3.91 / 1.71 suggest roughly **24% / 25% / 57%** before margin; the forecast is aligned but slightly softened for away-rotation/cup-variance.
- **Goals / corners / cards / penalty:** Odds point toward a game more likely than not to reach **3+ goals** (Over 2.5 at 1.49). Corners slightly lean over due to expected away pressure. Cards are projected under 5 given typical English cup dynamics unless the match becomes scrappy. Penalty chance is moderate (15–20%).