Eliteserien
Tromsø IL
Gastgeber
VS
HamKam
Gast
20.09.2026 18:00
Heimsieg
1.48
Unentschieden
4.28
Auswärtssieg
5.63
KI-Prognose
1: 64%
X: 22%
2: 14%
Goals over 2.5: 56%
Goals under 2.5: 44%
Corners over 9.5: 57%
Corners under 9.5: 43%
Cards over 5: 22%
Cards under 5: 78%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation:**
- **Squad strength:** Tromsø generally profile as the stronger, more stable Eliteserien side than HamKam, with a higher baseline quality and better home performance.
- **Match type:** This is an **official league match** (Regular season, Matchday 22), so motivation and best XI likelihood are higher than in friendlies.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No confirmed absences provided here, so the estimate assumes near-normal availability (this is a key uncertainty).
- **Home edge / travel / fatigue:** Tromsø at home plus likely longer travel for HamKam increases the home win probability; rainy conditions can add randomness but usually don’t erase the home advantage.
- **H2H + form signal:** Head-to-head is strongly tilted to Tromsø (9 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses in 11; including a 4–1 away win in July 2026), supporting the 1 outcome.
- **Odds check:** Book odds (1.48 / 4.28 / 5.63) imply a clear home favorite; the probabilities above are aligned but slightly tempered for draw variance.
- **Goals/props:** H2H average goals is relatively high (~2.91), so **Over 2.5** is slightly favored; corners lean over 9.5 in a match where the favorite should sustain pressure; cards are projected lower (Norway typically moderate), with rain potentially increasing fouls slightly but not enough to push “over 5” high.
X: 22%
2: 14%
Goals over 2.5: 56%
Goals under 2.5: 44%
Corners over 9.5: 57%
Corners under 9.5: 43%
Cards over 5: 22%
Cards under 5: 78%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation:**
- **Squad strength:** Tromsø generally profile as the stronger, more stable Eliteserien side than HamKam, with a higher baseline quality and better home performance.
- **Match type:** This is an **official league match** (Regular season, Matchday 22), so motivation and best XI likelihood are higher than in friendlies.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No confirmed absences provided here, so the estimate assumes near-normal availability (this is a key uncertainty).
- **Home edge / travel / fatigue:** Tromsø at home plus likely longer travel for HamKam increases the home win probability; rainy conditions can add randomness but usually don’t erase the home advantage.
- **H2H + form signal:** Head-to-head is strongly tilted to Tromsø (9 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses in 11; including a 4–1 away win in July 2026), supporting the 1 outcome.
- **Odds check:** Book odds (1.48 / 4.28 / 5.63) imply a clear home favorite; the probabilities above are aligned but slightly tempered for draw variance.
- **Goals/props:** H2H average goals is relatively high (~2.91), so **Over 2.5** is slightly favored; corners lean over 9.5 in a match where the favorite should sustain pressure; cards are projected lower (Norway typically moderate), with rain potentially increasing fouls slightly but not enough to push “over 5” high.