Liga MX Apertura
Querétaro FC
Gastgeber
VS
Cruz Azul
Gast
26.10.2026 01:00
Heimsieg
3.18
Unentschieden
3.52
Auswärtssieg
2.08
KI-Prognose
1: 29%
X: 27%
2: 44%
Goals over 2.5: 54%
Goals under 2.5: 46%
Corners over 9.5: 52%
Corners under 9.5: 48%
Cards over 5: 38%
Cards under 5: 62%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Cruz Azul have the stronger overall roster depth and higher baseline level; Querétaro typically rely more on home intensity than consistent quality. This tilts the win probability toward the away side despite the venue.
- **Match type:** This is an **official league match** (regular season, Matchday 14), so motivation and stronger lineups are more likely than in a friendly.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No confirmed absences provided here; that adds uncertainty, but without verified key outs there’s no reason to heavily downgrade Cruz Azul.
- **Home/away & travel/fatigue:** Not a neutral ground; Querétaro get home advantage. Weather looks mild/cloudy, unlikely to heavily affect tempo. No travel distance or tight-schedule data supplied, so only a standard away-travel penalty is applied.
- **Head-to-head & trend:** Historical H2H favors Cruz Azul (more wins overall). Recent meetings show draws are common (1-1, 2-2), but Cruz Azul have also won away at Querétaro in multiple recent visits—supporting **2** with a meaningful **X** chance.
- **Importance / standings / motivation:** Mid-to-late regular-season round usually increases points-pressure; the stronger side typically pushes for full points rather than settling.
- **Rotations / structural risks:** Without lineup info, the main risk is typical league rotation; this is reflected by keeping the draw probability relatively high.
- **Bookmaker odds:** Market prices imply Cruz Azul as favorites (away ~2.08 vs home ~3.18). My probabilities broadly align, with a slightly elevated draw chance due to recent H2H draws.
- **Totals, corners, cards, penalty:** Avg H2H total goals is ~2.7, supporting **Over 2.5** slightly. Corners lean marginally over 9.5 in a game where the favorite may press. Cards are more likely to stay **under 5** (not flagged as a derby), while penalty probability is kept in the typical 15–20% band.
X: 27%
2: 44%
Goals over 2.5: 54%
Goals under 2.5: 46%
Corners over 9.5: 52%
Corners under 9.5: 48%
Cards over 5: 38%
Cards under 5: 62%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Cruz Azul have the stronger overall roster depth and higher baseline level; Querétaro typically rely more on home intensity than consistent quality. This tilts the win probability toward the away side despite the venue.
- **Match type:** This is an **official league match** (regular season, Matchday 14), so motivation and stronger lineups are more likely than in a friendly.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No confirmed absences provided here; that adds uncertainty, but without verified key outs there’s no reason to heavily downgrade Cruz Azul.
- **Home/away & travel/fatigue:** Not a neutral ground; Querétaro get home advantage. Weather looks mild/cloudy, unlikely to heavily affect tempo. No travel distance or tight-schedule data supplied, so only a standard away-travel penalty is applied.
- **Head-to-head & trend:** Historical H2H favors Cruz Azul (more wins overall). Recent meetings show draws are common (1-1, 2-2), but Cruz Azul have also won away at Querétaro in multiple recent visits—supporting **2** with a meaningful **X** chance.
- **Importance / standings / motivation:** Mid-to-late regular-season round usually increases points-pressure; the stronger side typically pushes for full points rather than settling.
- **Rotations / structural risks:** Without lineup info, the main risk is typical league rotation; this is reflected by keeping the draw probability relatively high.
- **Bookmaker odds:** Market prices imply Cruz Azul as favorites (away ~2.08 vs home ~3.18). My probabilities broadly align, with a slightly elevated draw chance due to recent H2H draws.
- **Totals, corners, cards, penalty:** Avg H2H total goals is ~2.7, supporting **Over 2.5** slightly. Corners lean marginally over 9.5 in a game where the favorite may press. Cards are more likely to stay **under 5** (not flagged as a derby), while penalty probability is kept in the typical 15–20% band.