Categoría Primera A
Deportes Tolima
Gastgeber
VS
Deportivo Pasto
Gast
26.10.2026 01:15
Heimsieg
1.45
Unentschieden
4.03
Auswärtssieg
6.96
KI-Prognose
1: 67%
X: 21%
2: 12%
Goals over 2.5: 46%
Goals under 2.5: 54%
Corners over 9.5: 52%
Corners under 9.5: 48%
Cards over 5: 36%
Cards under 5: 64%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Tolima are priced as a clear favorite and generally have the deeper, more consistent squad at this level; Pasto are typically more limited away from home.
- **Match type:** This is an **official league match** (league phase, Matchday 16), so motivation and tactical discipline should be high.
- **Absences (injuries/suspensions):** No concrete injury/suspension list is provided here, so the forecast assumes **no major unexpected absences**. If Tolima miss key attackers or Pasto regain starters, probabilities should be adjusted.
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Tolima at home is a strong edge; travel in Colombia can be taxing, and that usually impacts away teams more. No travel-distance data is given, but the home bias is already reflected in the market.
- **Head-to-head & style signal:** The H2H record favors Tolima (10W–8D–6L) with a **low-ish goal average (~2.21)**. Recent meetings include multiple **tight, low-scoring** games (e.g., 1-0, 2-0), supporting **Under 2.5** slightly.
- **Importance / table pressure:** Matchday 16 in league phase typically matters for qualification/positioning; this tends to reduce “chaos” and favors the stronger home side.
- **Rotations / structural risks:** Without schedule info, rotation risk is moderate; if Tolima have upcoming continental/cup matches, that could lower their win probability a bit and increase draw chances.
- **Bookmaker odds:** 1.45 / 4.03 / 6.96 imply roughly **66–67% home win** after margin adjustment, which anchors the 1X2 forecast; totals markets (Over 2.5 at 2.00) also point to a near 50/50 on 2.5 goals, with a small lean to **Under**.
X: 21%
2: 12%
Goals over 2.5: 46%
Goals under 2.5: 54%
Corners over 9.5: 52%
Corners under 9.5: 48%
Cards over 5: 36%
Cards under 5: 64%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Tolima are priced as a clear favorite and generally have the deeper, more consistent squad at this level; Pasto are typically more limited away from home.
- **Match type:** This is an **official league match** (league phase, Matchday 16), so motivation and tactical discipline should be high.
- **Absences (injuries/suspensions):** No concrete injury/suspension list is provided here, so the forecast assumes **no major unexpected absences**. If Tolima miss key attackers or Pasto regain starters, probabilities should be adjusted.
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Tolima at home is a strong edge; travel in Colombia can be taxing, and that usually impacts away teams more. No travel-distance data is given, but the home bias is already reflected in the market.
- **Head-to-head & style signal:** The H2H record favors Tolima (10W–8D–6L) with a **low-ish goal average (~2.21)**. Recent meetings include multiple **tight, low-scoring** games (e.g., 1-0, 2-0), supporting **Under 2.5** slightly.
- **Importance / table pressure:** Matchday 16 in league phase typically matters for qualification/positioning; this tends to reduce “chaos” and favors the stronger home side.
- **Rotations / structural risks:** Without schedule info, rotation risk is moderate; if Tolima have upcoming continental/cup matches, that could lower their win probability a bit and increase draw chances.
- **Bookmaker odds:** 1.45 / 4.03 / 6.96 imply roughly **66–67% home win** after margin adjustment, which anchors the 1X2 forecast; totals markets (Over 2.5 at 2.00) also point to a near 50/50 on 2.5 goals, with a small lean to **Under**.