Serie A
AC Milan
Gastgeber
VS
Bologna
Gast
28.10.2026 17:30
Heimsieg
1.61
Unentschieden
3.96
Auswärtssieg
5.27
KI-Prognose
1: 58%
X: 24%
2: 18%
Goals over 2.5: 52%
Goals under 2.5: 48%
Corners over 9.5: 54%
Corners under 9.5: 46%
Cards over 5: 27%
Cards under 5: 73%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength/quality:** AC Milan typically have a stronger squad (depth, individual quality, home dominance), while Bologna are competitive but generally a tier below—especially away.
- **Match type:** This is an **official league match** (Regular Season, Matchday 9), so motivation and full-intensity approach are expected.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No reliable, match-specific absences are provided here; treat this as a **structural uncertainty** that can swing margins (especially if Milan rotate due to Europe).
- **Home advantage, travel, fatigue:** San Siro home edge favors Milan. Late October often brings a congested calendar; Milan are more likely to manage minutes if they have European fixtures, which slightly increases draw/upset risk.
- **H2H and recent meetings:** The historical and recent head-to-head strongly favors Milan (including multiple recent Milan wins and a 0–3 away win in early 2026), supporting the higher home-win probability.
- **Importance/standings/motivation:** Early season points matter; Milan typically target top places, Bologna often target stability/top-half—motivation is solid for both, but Milan have higher expectations at home.
- **Rotations/structural risks:** Biggest risk to the “1” is **Milan rotation** and game-state control (leading to a lower-tempo second half), which also keeps **Under 2.5** close to 50/50.
- **Bookmaker odds check:** Odds (1.61 / 3.96 / 5.27) imply roughly **~58% / 24% / 18%** after normalization—matching the 1X2 forecast. Over 2.5 is priced around a coin flip; BTTS is also close, so totals are kept near-balanced.
X: 24%
2: 18%
Goals over 2.5: 52%
Goals under 2.5: 48%
Corners over 9.5: 54%
Corners under 9.5: 46%
Cards over 5: 27%
Cards under 5: 73%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength/quality:** AC Milan typically have a stronger squad (depth, individual quality, home dominance), while Bologna are competitive but generally a tier below—especially away.
- **Match type:** This is an **official league match** (Regular Season, Matchday 9), so motivation and full-intensity approach are expected.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No reliable, match-specific absences are provided here; treat this as a **structural uncertainty** that can swing margins (especially if Milan rotate due to Europe).
- **Home advantage, travel, fatigue:** San Siro home edge favors Milan. Late October often brings a congested calendar; Milan are more likely to manage minutes if they have European fixtures, which slightly increases draw/upset risk.
- **H2H and recent meetings:** The historical and recent head-to-head strongly favors Milan (including multiple recent Milan wins and a 0–3 away win in early 2026), supporting the higher home-win probability.
- **Importance/standings/motivation:** Early season points matter; Milan typically target top places, Bologna often target stability/top-half—motivation is solid for both, but Milan have higher expectations at home.
- **Rotations/structural risks:** Biggest risk to the “1” is **Milan rotation** and game-state control (leading to a lower-tempo second half), which also keeps **Under 2.5** close to 50/50.
- **Bookmaker odds check:** Odds (1.61 / 3.96 / 5.27) imply roughly **~58% / 24% / 18%** after normalization—matching the 1X2 forecast. Over 2.5 is priced around a coin flip; BTTS is also close, so totals are kept near-balanced.