Eliteserien
Molde FK
Gastgeber
VS
Aalesunds FK
Gast
19.09.2026 19:00
Heimsieg
1.32
Unentschieden
5.67
Auswärtssieg
6.82
KI-Prognose
1: 70%
X: 18%
2: 12%
Голове над 2.5: 72%
Голове под 2.5: 28%
Корнери над 9.5: 54%
Корнери под 9.5: 46%
Картони над 5: 24%
Картони под 5: 76%
Дузпа: 16-20%
**Explanation (concise):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Molde are typically the stronger, deeper side in Norway and the market prices them as a clear favorite; Aalesund are materially weaker on average.
- **Match type & motivation:** This is an **official league** fixture (regular season, matchday 22), so motivation and first-choice selections are more likely than in a friendly.
- **H2H & matchup fit:** The head-to-head is heavily tilted to Molde (very high Molde win rate overall), and recent meetings include convincing Molde home wins (e.g., 4–1, 3–0), supporting a strong home-win probability.
- **Form signal from recent H2H:** Aalesund managed a 2–2 at home earlier in the season, suggesting they can compete at times, but Molde’s home edge remains substantial.
- **Travel / venue / conditions:** Not a neutral ground; weather looks mild, no obvious external drag on Molde’s attacking output.
- **Injuries/suspensions & rotations:** No verified injury/suspension list provided here, so this is a **key uncertainty**. With matchday 22, rotation risk exists if there is fixture congestion, but the odds suggest Molde are still expected to field a strong XI.
- **Bookmaker odds check:** Prices (~1.32 / 5.67 / 6.82) imply roughly **~69% home / ~16% draw / ~15% away** before margin; I’ve kept the home win high, slightly increased draw, and trimmed away win a bit, aligning with the dominant H2H.
- **Goals/corners/cards:** The goal markets strongly lean over 2.5 and BTTS-Yes, so the projection favors a higher-scoring game. Cards are projected lower (Norwegian league tendency + no derby flag), while corners are moderate-to-slightly-high given expected Molde territorial pressure. Penalty probability kept in the typical mid-range.
X: 18%
2: 12%
Голове над 2.5: 72%
Голове под 2.5: 28%
Корнери над 9.5: 54%
Корнери под 9.5: 46%
Картони над 5: 24%
Картони под 5: 76%
Дузпа: 16-20%
**Explanation (concise):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Molde are typically the stronger, deeper side in Norway and the market prices them as a clear favorite; Aalesund are materially weaker on average.
- **Match type & motivation:** This is an **official league** fixture (regular season, matchday 22), so motivation and first-choice selections are more likely than in a friendly.
- **H2H & matchup fit:** The head-to-head is heavily tilted to Molde (very high Molde win rate overall), and recent meetings include convincing Molde home wins (e.g., 4–1, 3–0), supporting a strong home-win probability.
- **Form signal from recent H2H:** Aalesund managed a 2–2 at home earlier in the season, suggesting they can compete at times, but Molde’s home edge remains substantial.
- **Travel / venue / conditions:** Not a neutral ground; weather looks mild, no obvious external drag on Molde’s attacking output.
- **Injuries/suspensions & rotations:** No verified injury/suspension list provided here, so this is a **key uncertainty**. With matchday 22, rotation risk exists if there is fixture congestion, but the odds suggest Molde are still expected to field a strong XI.
- **Bookmaker odds check:** Prices (~1.32 / 5.67 / 6.82) imply roughly **~69% home / ~16% draw / ~15% away** before margin; I’ve kept the home win high, slightly increased draw, and trimmed away win a bit, aligning with the dominant H2H.
- **Goals/corners/cards:** The goal markets strongly lean over 2.5 and BTTS-Yes, so the projection favors a higher-scoring game. Cards are projected lower (Norwegian league tendency + no derby flag), while corners are moderate-to-slightly-high given expected Molde territorial pressure. Penalty probability kept in the typical mid-range.