Ekstraklasa
MKS Korona Kielce
Gastgeber
VS
Raków Częstochowa
Gast
19.09.2026 15:45
Heimsieg
2.13
Unentschieden
3.28
Auswärtssieg
3.16
KI-Prognose
1: 41%
X: 30%
2: 29%
Goals over 2.5: 48%
Goals under 2.5: 52%
Corners over 9.5: 54%
Corners under 9.5: 46%
Cards over 5: 32%
Cards under 5: 68%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Raków are typically the higher-ceiling side in Poland (more structured, stronger squad depth), but Korona at home can be stubborn and the market doesn’t rate Raków as clear favorites here.
- **Match type / importance:** This is an **official league match (Ekstraklasa, regular season, Matchday 9)**, so motivation is full; fewer “friendly-style” risks.
- **Injuries / suspensions:** No confirmed list provided here; this adds uncertainty and slightly increases draw probability and lowers confidence.
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Korona get a meaningful home boost; travel within Poland is manageable, and with no additional schedule data (Europe/cup rotation) fatigue is treated as moderate/unknown.
- **H2H and scoring tendency:** Recent H2H slightly favors Raków (including a 4–1 away win and a 2–0 home win), but overall **avg total goals ~1.91** suggests many tight games → slight lean to **Under 2.5**.
- **Bookmakers’ odds (implied):** 2.13 / 3.28 / 3.16 indicates **Korona as mild favorite**, not dominant. Converting odds to implied probabilities (before margin) supports **1 slightly ahead of 2**, with a solid draw chance.
- **Corners / cards / penalty:** Balanced matchup in an official game usually brings decent corner volume (hence slight lean over 9.5). Card line over 5 looks a bit high for a non-derby without specific referee data → lean under. Penalty occurrence stays in the typical mid-teens range.
X: 30%
2: 29%
Goals over 2.5: 48%
Goals under 2.5: 52%
Corners over 9.5: 54%
Corners under 9.5: 46%
Cards over 5: 32%
Cards under 5: 68%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Raków are typically the higher-ceiling side in Poland (more structured, stronger squad depth), but Korona at home can be stubborn and the market doesn’t rate Raków as clear favorites here.
- **Match type / importance:** This is an **official league match (Ekstraklasa, regular season, Matchday 9)**, so motivation is full; fewer “friendly-style” risks.
- **Injuries / suspensions:** No confirmed list provided here; this adds uncertainty and slightly increases draw probability and lowers confidence.
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Korona get a meaningful home boost; travel within Poland is manageable, and with no additional schedule data (Europe/cup rotation) fatigue is treated as moderate/unknown.
- **H2H and scoring tendency:** Recent H2H slightly favors Raków (including a 4–1 away win and a 2–0 home win), but overall **avg total goals ~1.91** suggests many tight games → slight lean to **Under 2.5**.
- **Bookmakers’ odds (implied):** 2.13 / 3.28 / 3.16 indicates **Korona as mild favorite**, not dominant. Converting odds to implied probabilities (before margin) supports **1 slightly ahead of 2**, with a solid draw chance.
- **Corners / cards / penalty:** Balanced matchup in an official game usually brings decent corner volume (hence slight lean over 9.5). Card line over 5 looks a bit high for a non-derby without specific referee data → lean under. Penalty occurrence stays in the typical mid-teens range.