Liga Portugal 2
Leixões SC
Gastgeber
VS
Chaves
Gast
15.11.2026 18:00
Heimsieg
1.98
Unentschieden
3.27
Auswärtssieg
3.40
KI-Prognose
1: 44%
X: 28%
2: 28%
Goals over 2.5: 49%
Goals under 2.5: 51%
Corners over 9.5: 52%
Corners under 9.5: 48%
Cards over 5: 32%
Cards under 5: 68%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief reasoning (key factors):**
- **Match type & motivation:** This is an **official league match (Regular season, Matchday 11)**, so motivation is structurally high; less room for “friendly-style” intensity drops.
- **Squad strength (baseline):** The market prices **Leixões as a narrow favorite at home** (home win 1.98), suggesting a modest quality/strength edge or stronger home performance profile vs Chaves away.
- **Bookmakers’ signal:** Implied by odds (normalized roughly): **Home ~46% / Draw ~28% / Away ~27%**, which aligns closely with the 1X2 percentages above. The totals market is near-balanced (**O2.5 1.90 vs U2.5 1.85**), pointing to a borderline 2–3 goal expectation.
- **Head-to-head & style hints:** Longer-term H2H leans to **Chaves historically**, but recent meetings include several **low-scoring results** (multiple 0-0/1-0 type games). That supports **slight preference to Under 2.5**, despite Over 1.5 being strongly favored.
- **Home advantage & travel/fitness:** Leixões benefit from home conditions; travel for Chaves is moderate (domestic), so not a major negative, but still a small edge to the host. No confirmed injury/suspension list provided, so no adjustment for absences/rotations beyond normal league uncertainty.
- **Cards/corners/penalty:** With no derby flag and a typical league setting, cards are projected **moderate** (Under 5 more likely). Corners around the **9–10 line** are close to a coin flip; slight lean to Over due to the balanced game script and both teams having realistic scoring paths. Penalty probability stays in the **15–20%** band (typical baseline for pro matches).
X: 28%
2: 28%
Goals over 2.5: 49%
Goals under 2.5: 51%
Corners over 9.5: 52%
Corners under 9.5: 48%
Cards over 5: 32%
Cards under 5: 68%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief reasoning (key factors):**
- **Match type & motivation:** This is an **official league match (Regular season, Matchday 11)**, so motivation is structurally high; less room for “friendly-style” intensity drops.
- **Squad strength (baseline):** The market prices **Leixões as a narrow favorite at home** (home win 1.98), suggesting a modest quality/strength edge or stronger home performance profile vs Chaves away.
- **Bookmakers’ signal:** Implied by odds (normalized roughly): **Home ~46% / Draw ~28% / Away ~27%**, which aligns closely with the 1X2 percentages above. The totals market is near-balanced (**O2.5 1.90 vs U2.5 1.85**), pointing to a borderline 2–3 goal expectation.
- **Head-to-head & style hints:** Longer-term H2H leans to **Chaves historically**, but recent meetings include several **low-scoring results** (multiple 0-0/1-0 type games). That supports **slight preference to Under 2.5**, despite Over 1.5 being strongly favored.
- **Home advantage & travel/fitness:** Leixões benefit from home conditions; travel for Chaves is moderate (domestic), so not a major negative, but still a small edge to the host. No confirmed injury/suspension list provided, so no adjustment for absences/rotations beyond normal league uncertainty.
- **Cards/corners/penalty:** With no derby flag and a typical league setting, cards are projected **moderate** (Under 5 more likely). Corners around the **9–10 line** are close to a coin flip; slight lean to Over due to the balanced game script and both teams having realistic scoring paths. Penalty probability stays in the **15–20%** band (typical baseline for pro matches).