Martinique

1: 18%
X: 24%
2: 58%
Goals over 2.5: 47%
Goals under 2.5: 53%
Corners over 9.5: 46%
Corners under 9.5: 54%
Cards over 5: 22%
Cards under 5: 78%
Penalty: 15-20%

**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength (baseline):** The market strongly rates Aruba higher (away win priced ~1.61), implying a clear quality edge overall. Martinique’s home advantage narrows the gap slightly, but not enough to flip favoritism.
- **Match type / context:** Labeled as a **Final**, so it’s presumably an **official, high-stakes** game rather than a friendly. That usually reduces rotation and increases tactical caution, slightly boosting the draw probability.
- **Injuries / suspensions:** No reliable confirmed absences provided here; assume near full squads. This keeps probabilities close to what the market suggests.
- **Home advantage, travel, fatigue:** Travel in the Caribbean can still be disruptive, but the away side remains a strong favorite per odds. With a final, both teams should be fully focused; fatigue risk is moderate and hard to quantify without fixture lists.
- **H2H & current form:** No head-to-head/form data included, so the **bookmaker odds** are the main anchor.
- **Motivation / rotations / structural risks:** Finals typically mean best XI and lower rotation. Structural risk remains (small-nation squads can have availability issues), which is one reason the away win probability isn’t pushed into the mid-60s+.
- **Goals / corners / cards:** A final often starts tighter (leaning **under 2.5** slightly). Corners projected just under 9.5 due to potentially cautious pacing. Cards over 5 is relatively low for this profile unless the referee is known to be strict (referee not specified). Penalty chance set at a typical baseline range.