Eibar

1: 57%
X: 25%
2: 18%
Goals over 2.5: 52%
Goals under 2.5: 48%
Corners over 9.5: 54%
Corners under 9.5: 46%
Cards over 5: 38%
Cards under 5: 62%
Penalty: 16-20%

**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Eibar look the stronger side on paper and at home, while Cádiz are more inconsistent away; this supports a clear home edge.
- **Match type:** It’s an **official league match** (regular season, Matchday 14), so intensity and point-value are high; less room for experimental lineups than in a friendly.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No reliable list is provided here, so this is a **structural uncertainty**—final odds can move sharply if a key striker/CB/keeper is ruled out.
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Eibar benefit from home conditions; Cádiz have to travel (moderate domestic trip). Mid-November scheduling can bring some fatigue, but without exact prior-match minutes this is priced only lightly.
- **H2H & recent pattern:** The head-to-head is generally **low-scoring (avg 1.5 goals)**, but Eibar’s **3–1** home win in the most recent meeting indicates they can break Cádiz when on the front foot. This is why over 2.5 is only a slight lean, not a strong one.
- **Motivation / table pressure:** With it being mid-season, points matter; neither side should treat it as a rotation spot by default, which favors the “safer” outcome (home or draw).
- **Rotation risks:** November can include minor rotation and load management, but in a league fixture it’s usually limited unless there are injuries or an unusually congested week.
- **Bookmakers’ odds:** The market strongly favors Eibar (home win priced much shorter than draw/away). Converting odds to implied probabilities and allowing for margin supports a **home-win probability in the high-50s**, with draw next and away win the least likely.