Belarus

1: 24%
X: 28%
2: 48%
Goals over 2.5: 42%
Goals under 2.5: 58%
Corners over 9.5: 46%
Corners under 9.5: 54%
Cards over 5: 34%
Cards under 5: 66%
Penalty: 15-20%

**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength:** Albania are the stronger side on paper and have been priced as clear favorites (away win odds ~2.00), which implies a materially higher win probability than Belarus.
- **Match type & motivation:** This is an **official Nations League group-stage match (Matchday 6)**, typically bringing stronger lineups and higher focus than friendlies—especially if points/promotion/relegation are on the line.
- **H2H & recent edge:** Albania dominate the head-to-head (3 wins in 4) and already beat Belarus **2–0** in the earlier meeting in 2026, supporting the away edge.
- **Home/travel/weather:** Belarus at home and cold/cloudy conditions can suppress tempo and scoring; that nudges the game slightly toward **Under 2.5** despite Albania’s advantage.
- **Market vs totals:** Odds suggest a moderate-scoring game (Under 2.5 favored at ~1.64), hence **Under 2.5** slightly more likely than Over.
- **Cards/penalty:** International matches often sit in a mid-range for cards; **Under 5 cards** is slightly more likely. Penalties remain relatively rare, kept at **15–20%**.

*Note:* No confirmed injury/suspension list was provided here; late absences and rotation (common on Matchday 6 depending on the table) are the main structural risks to the probabilities.