Ligue 1
Toulouse
Host
VS
Le Havre
Guest
19.09.2026 21:45
Home win
1.83
Draw
3.59
Away win
4.28
AI prediction
1: 52%
X: 27%
2: 21%
Goals over 2.5: 49%
Goals under 2.5: 51%
Corners over 9.5: 55%
Corners under 9.5: 45%
Cards over 5: 28%
Cards under 5: 72%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Toulouse rate as the stronger side overall and usually carry more match control at home; Le Havre profile more as an underdog away.
- **Match type / importance:** This is an **official Ligue 1 regular-season** fixture (Matchday 5), so motivation and strongest available XIs are more likely than in friendlies.
- **Injuries / suspensions:** No confirmed absences are provided here; this adds uncertainty and slightly limits confidence in the margins.
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Toulouse benefit from home conditions; travel is manageable domestically, and early-season fatigue is typically moderate (some risk from international breaks/rotation, but not enough data to price heavily).
- **H2H & recent meetings:** Historical H2H favors Toulouse (more wins, fewer losses), but recent results include a Le Havre home win (2–1) and a 0–0 in Toulouse—supporting a meaningful draw/low-scoring component.
- **Market (bookmakers’ odds):** Odds imply roughly **~52% home win, ~27% draw, ~22% away win** (after normalization), which aligns closely with the above 1X2. Totals are near balanced around 2.5, so I keep **Under 2.5 slightly higher** due to the recent 0–0 and Le Havre’s likely cautious away approach.
- **Structural risks (rotation):** Early season and squad management can create variance, but without concrete schedule/injury inputs it’s a secondary factor.
X: 27%
2: 21%
Goals over 2.5: 49%
Goals under 2.5: 51%
Corners over 9.5: 55%
Corners under 9.5: 45%
Cards over 5: 28%
Cards under 5: 72%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Toulouse rate as the stronger side overall and usually carry more match control at home; Le Havre profile more as an underdog away.
- **Match type / importance:** This is an **official Ligue 1 regular-season** fixture (Matchday 5), so motivation and strongest available XIs are more likely than in friendlies.
- **Injuries / suspensions:** No confirmed absences are provided here; this adds uncertainty and slightly limits confidence in the margins.
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Toulouse benefit from home conditions; travel is manageable domestically, and early-season fatigue is typically moderate (some risk from international breaks/rotation, but not enough data to price heavily).
- **H2H & recent meetings:** Historical H2H favors Toulouse (more wins, fewer losses), but recent results include a Le Havre home win (2–1) and a 0–0 in Toulouse—supporting a meaningful draw/low-scoring component.
- **Market (bookmakers’ odds):** Odds imply roughly **~52% home win, ~27% draw, ~22% away win** (after normalization), which aligns closely with the above 1X2. Totals are near balanced around 2.5, so I keep **Under 2.5 slightly higher** due to the recent 0–0 and Le Havre’s likely cautious away approach.
- **Structural risks (rotation):** Early season and squad management can create variance, but without concrete schedule/injury inputs it’s a secondary factor.