DFB Pokal
Rot-Weiss Essen
Host
VS
RB Leipzig
Guest
27.10.2026 17:00
Home win
11.00
Draw
6.50
Away win
1.18
AI prediction
1: 7%
X: 11%
2: 82%
Goals over 2.5: 68%
Goals under 2.5: 32%
Corners over 9.5: 55%
Corners under 9.5: 45%
Cards over 5: 22%
Cards under 5: 78%
Penalty: 16-20%
**Brief rationale (key factors):**
- **Squad strength/quality:** RB Leipzig’s baseline quality, depth, and athletic level are vastly superior to Rot-Weiss Essen’s; the gap typically shows in chance volume and finishing efficiency.
- **Match type:** This is an **official** fixture (Round 2), which generally reduces “experimental” behavior compared to friendlies, though favorites may still rotate.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No reliable, match-specific absences are provided here; prediction assumes no extreme last-minute squad depletion.
- **Home/away, travel, schedule:** Essen have home advantage, but Leipzig’s travel is manageable; calendar/rotation risk exists for Leipzig (bigger competitions), yet their bench quality usually covers it.
- **H2H & form signals:** The only listed H2H ended **1–4** for Leipzig, consistent with a multi-goal edge.
- **Motivation/importance:** Cup-style rounds are high-stakes for the underdog; for Leipzig, priority is still to progress—often by controlling the match rather than playing at maximum intensity for 90 minutes.
- **Rotation/structural risks:** Leipzig rotation can slightly increase draw risk and “BTTS” probability, but not enough to outweigh the overall mismatch.
- **Bookmaker odds:** 1.18 away win implies roughly **~85%** win probability before margin; the 82% away win here aligns closely while allowing for cup variance. Over 2.5 at 1.33 also supports a higher-scoring expectation.
X: 11%
2: 82%
Goals over 2.5: 68%
Goals under 2.5: 32%
Corners over 9.5: 55%
Corners under 9.5: 45%
Cards over 5: 22%
Cards under 5: 78%
Penalty: 16-20%
**Brief rationale (key factors):**
- **Squad strength/quality:** RB Leipzig’s baseline quality, depth, and athletic level are vastly superior to Rot-Weiss Essen’s; the gap typically shows in chance volume and finishing efficiency.
- **Match type:** This is an **official** fixture (Round 2), which generally reduces “experimental” behavior compared to friendlies, though favorites may still rotate.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No reliable, match-specific absences are provided here; prediction assumes no extreme last-minute squad depletion.
- **Home/away, travel, schedule:** Essen have home advantage, but Leipzig’s travel is manageable; calendar/rotation risk exists for Leipzig (bigger competitions), yet their bench quality usually covers it.
- **H2H & form signals:** The only listed H2H ended **1–4** for Leipzig, consistent with a multi-goal edge.
- **Motivation/importance:** Cup-style rounds are high-stakes for the underdog; for Leipzig, priority is still to progress—often by controlling the match rather than playing at maximum intensity for 90 minutes.
- **Rotation/structural risks:** Leipzig rotation can slightly increase draw risk and “BTTS” probability, but not enough to outweigh the overall mismatch.
- **Bookmaker odds:** 1.18 away win implies roughly **~85%** win probability before margin; the 82% away win here aligns closely while allowing for cup variance. Over 2.5 at 1.33 also supports a higher-scoring expectation.