DFB Pokal
SC Freiburg
Host
VS
VfL Wolfsburg
Guest
28.10.2026 17:00
Home win
1.42
Draw
4.63
Away win
5.78
AI prediction
1: 66%
X: 20%
2: 14%
Goals over 2.5: 58%
Goals under 2.5: 42%
Corners over 9.5: 54%
Corners under 9.5: 46%
Cards over 5: 28%
Cards under 5: 72%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Freiburg at home are priced as a strong favorite; Wolfsburg remain competitive but are rated clearly lower here.
- **Match type:** This is an **official** game (Round 2), so motivation and intensity should be normal/serious rather than experimental.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No reliable, confirmed list is provided; treat this as an **unknown risk** that could move probabilities slightly close to kickoff.
- **Home advantage + travel + conditions:** Freiburg benefit from home ground; travel burden on Wolfsburg is moderate. Rain/9°C can slightly increase randomness (slips, set pieces) but doesn’t overturn the favorite status.
- **H2H and recent meetings:** H2H is fairly balanced historically, but recent games show Freiburg often avoid defeat and matches tend to produce goals (avg ~3.0 total).
- **Form / schedule / rotations:** Early-round context typically means fewer extreme rotations than cup fixtures, but structural rotation risk still exists (especially if either team has a congested week).
- **Bookmakers’ odds (main driver):** 1.42 / 4.63 / 5.78 implies a strong home lean; after normalization, the market roughly points to ~**64% / 20% / 16%**, which is close to the probabilities above. Over 2.5 at 1.38 supports a **moderate-to-high** goal expectation; BTTS “Yes” at 1.52 supports decent scoring chances for both.
X: 20%
2: 14%
Goals over 2.5: 58%
Goals under 2.5: 42%
Corners over 9.5: 54%
Corners under 9.5: 46%
Cards over 5: 28%
Cards under 5: 72%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Freiburg at home are priced as a strong favorite; Wolfsburg remain competitive but are rated clearly lower here.
- **Match type:** This is an **official** game (Round 2), so motivation and intensity should be normal/serious rather than experimental.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No reliable, confirmed list is provided; treat this as an **unknown risk** that could move probabilities slightly close to kickoff.
- **Home advantage + travel + conditions:** Freiburg benefit from home ground; travel burden on Wolfsburg is moderate. Rain/9°C can slightly increase randomness (slips, set pieces) but doesn’t overturn the favorite status.
- **H2H and recent meetings:** H2H is fairly balanced historically, but recent games show Freiburg often avoid defeat and matches tend to produce goals (avg ~3.0 total).
- **Form / schedule / rotations:** Early-round context typically means fewer extreme rotations than cup fixtures, but structural rotation risk still exists (especially if either team has a congested week).
- **Bookmakers’ odds (main driver):** 1.42 / 4.63 / 5.78 implies a strong home lean; after normalization, the market roughly points to ~**64% / 20% / 16%**, which is close to the probabilities above. Over 2.5 at 1.38 supports a **moderate-to-high** goal expectation; BTTS “Yes” at 1.52 supports decent scoring chances for both.