DFB Pokal
SC Paderborn 07
Host
VS
VfB Stuttgart
Guest
28.10.2026 17:00
Home win
5.24
Draw
4.20
Away win
1.50
AI prediction
1: 18%
X: 23%
2: 59%
Goals over 2.5: 58%
Goals under 2.5: 42%
Corners over 9.5: 52%
Corners under 9.5: 48%
Cards over 5: 26%
Cards under 5: 74%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Stuttgart have the clearly higher squad level and typical top-tier depth; Paderborn are a solid but weaker side on paper. That gap is large enough to outweigh home advantage in most scenarios.
- **Match type:** This is an **official** fixture (cup-style “Round 2” stage), so motivation and strongest available lineups are expected to be higher than in a friendly.
- **Injuries / suspensions:** No confirmed absences were provided; this adds uncertainty, but it doesn’t remove the underlying quality gap. If Stuttgart rotate heavily, the draw/home upset chances rise.
- **Home advantage, travel, schedule, fatigue:** Not a neutral venue; Paderborn benefit from home conditions. Travel is manageable for Stuttgart, and fatigue risk depends on each team’s surrounding fixtures (unknown here). **Rain (~10°C, wind)** can reduce technical sharpness and slightly increase variance.
- **H2H and recent meetings:** Head-to-head strongly favors Stuttgart (3 wins in 4; recent 0–2 away win on 10.10.2026). That supports the away-win lean.
- **Importance / motivation:** Knockout-round context increases focus; Stuttgart should prioritize avoiding an upset, while Paderborn’s incentive is maximal.
- **Rotations / structural risks:** Stuttgart may rotate if they have congested league/European minutes, but their depth still makes them favorites. Paderborn’s main “path” is compact defending + set pieces.
- **Bookmaker odds:** The market prices Stuttgart as a strong favorite (away win ~1.50; home win ~5.24), which translates to a clear away-lean. My 1X2 percentages broadly align with that, allowing some extra room for cup variance.
Totals/corners/cards:
- **Over 2.5 goals** slightly favored due to Stuttgart’s attacking edge and cup-game dynamics, though rain can temper finishing.
- **Corners** lean mildly to over 9.5 (favorite pressure often inflates corner counts).
- **Cards** lean under 5: not a derby, and unless the match becomes chaotic, typical discipline levels should hold; knockout tension can raise cards, but not enough to flip it here.
- **Penalty** kept in the usual mid range (15–20%) given modern penalty frequency and favorite-box presence.
X: 23%
2: 59%
Goals over 2.5: 58%
Goals under 2.5: 42%
Corners over 9.5: 52%
Corners under 9.5: 48%
Cards over 5: 26%
Cards under 5: 74%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Stuttgart have the clearly higher squad level and typical top-tier depth; Paderborn are a solid but weaker side on paper. That gap is large enough to outweigh home advantage in most scenarios.
- **Match type:** This is an **official** fixture (cup-style “Round 2” stage), so motivation and strongest available lineups are expected to be higher than in a friendly.
- **Injuries / suspensions:** No confirmed absences were provided; this adds uncertainty, but it doesn’t remove the underlying quality gap. If Stuttgart rotate heavily, the draw/home upset chances rise.
- **Home advantage, travel, schedule, fatigue:** Not a neutral venue; Paderborn benefit from home conditions. Travel is manageable for Stuttgart, and fatigue risk depends on each team’s surrounding fixtures (unknown here). **Rain (~10°C, wind)** can reduce technical sharpness and slightly increase variance.
- **H2H and recent meetings:** Head-to-head strongly favors Stuttgart (3 wins in 4; recent 0–2 away win on 10.10.2026). That supports the away-win lean.
- **Importance / motivation:** Knockout-round context increases focus; Stuttgart should prioritize avoiding an upset, while Paderborn’s incentive is maximal.
- **Rotations / structural risks:** Stuttgart may rotate if they have congested league/European minutes, but their depth still makes them favorites. Paderborn’s main “path” is compact defending + set pieces.
- **Bookmaker odds:** The market prices Stuttgart as a strong favorite (away win ~1.50; home win ~5.24), which translates to a clear away-lean. My 1X2 percentages broadly align with that, allowing some extra room for cup variance.
Totals/corners/cards:
- **Over 2.5 goals** slightly favored due to Stuttgart’s attacking edge and cup-game dynamics, though rain can temper finishing.
- **Corners** lean mildly to over 9.5 (favorite pressure often inflates corner counts).
- **Cards** lean under 5: not a derby, and unless the match becomes chaotic, typical discipline levels should hold; knockout tension can raise cards, but not enough to flip it here.
- **Penalty** kept in the usual mid range (15–20%) given modern penalty frequency and favorite-box presence.