MLS
New England Revolution
Host
VS
Orlando City SC
Guest
20.09.2026 02:30
Home win
1.76
Draw
4.00
Away win
3.70
AI prediction
1: 52%
X: 25%
2: 23%
Goals over 2.5: 58%
Goals under 2.5: 42%
Corners over 9.5: 57%
Corners under 9.5: 43%
Cards over 5: 28%
Cards under 5: 72%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation:**
- **Squad strength / quality:** The market clearly rates New England higher at home; Orlando are competitive but priced as underdogs.
- **Match type:** This is an **official MLS regular-season** game, so motivation and strongest lineups are more likely than in a friendly.
- **Injuries / suspensions:** No confirmed absences were provided, so this is treated as **unknown** (a key uncertainty that could move the probabilities).
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Orlando face a long trip to Foxborough; combined with **rain and ~11°C**, conditions typically favor the home side and can increase set-pieces/corners while slightly reducing game control for the visitor.
- **H2H & scoring profile:** The H2H sample is high-scoring on average and recent meetings include several 3+ goal games; BTTS is also strongly implied by the odds, supporting **Over 2.5** as slightly more likely than Under.
- **Odds signal:** Bookmakers (1.76 / 4.00 / 3.70) imply a solid home edge; after accounting for draw probability and typical MLS variance, the home win is set just above 50%.
- **Structural risks / rotations:** Late-season scheduling can create rotation risk, but without the exact calendar it’s kept moderate; the main risk is unknown team news.
- **Cards & penalty:** MLS games are often not extremely card-heavy unless it’s a rivalry; with no derby flag and rain not necessarily increasing fouls drastically, **Under 5 cards** is favored. Penalty chance remains in the typical **15–20%** range.
X: 25%
2: 23%
Goals over 2.5: 58%
Goals under 2.5: 42%
Corners over 9.5: 57%
Corners under 9.5: 43%
Cards over 5: 28%
Cards under 5: 72%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation:**
- **Squad strength / quality:** The market clearly rates New England higher at home; Orlando are competitive but priced as underdogs.
- **Match type:** This is an **official MLS regular-season** game, so motivation and strongest lineups are more likely than in a friendly.
- **Injuries / suspensions:** No confirmed absences were provided, so this is treated as **unknown** (a key uncertainty that could move the probabilities).
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Orlando face a long trip to Foxborough; combined with **rain and ~11°C**, conditions typically favor the home side and can increase set-pieces/corners while slightly reducing game control for the visitor.
- **H2H & scoring profile:** The H2H sample is high-scoring on average and recent meetings include several 3+ goal games; BTTS is also strongly implied by the odds, supporting **Over 2.5** as slightly more likely than Under.
- **Odds signal:** Bookmakers (1.76 / 4.00 / 3.70) imply a solid home edge; after accounting for draw probability and typical MLS variance, the home win is set just above 50%.
- **Structural risks / rotations:** Late-season scheduling can create rotation risk, but without the exact calendar it’s kept moderate; the main risk is unknown team news.
- **Cards & penalty:** MLS games are often not extremely card-heavy unless it’s a rivalry; with no derby flag and rain not necessarily increasing fouls drastically, **Under 5 cards** is favored. Penalty chance remains in the typical **15–20%** range.