Veikkausliiga
Turun Palloseura
Host
VS
Ilves
Guest
19.09.2026 15:00
Home win
2.49
Draw
3.49
Away win
2.47
AI prediction
1: 35%
X: 28%
2: 37%
Goals over 2.5: 56%
Goals under 2.5: 44%
Corners over 9.5: 52%
Corners under 9.5: 48%
Cards over 5: 24%
Cards under 5: 76%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Ilves look like the slightly stronger side overall, reflected both in long-term H2H dominance and the market being marginally in their favor, but not by much.
- **Match type:** Regular-season official match, so motivation and first-choice usage should generally be higher than in friendlies.
- **Injuries / suspensions:** No concrete injury/suspension list provided here, so this remains an uncertainty and a structural risk (late news could move probabilities).
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** TPS at home helps balance things, but the odds still price it as close to a coin flip. Weather (around 15°C, moderate wind) suggests fairly normal playing conditions.
- **H2H & recent meetings:** In the last 10 H2H, Ilves have won 9 (including multiple wins in 2026), which supports a slight away lean despite home field.
- **Importance / table context:** As a regular-season fixture, points matter; with near-even odds, expect a competitive game and limited “give-up” risk.
- **Rotations / structural risks:** Unless there is fixture congestion (not provided), heavy rotation is less likely; the main risk is late lineup/injury news.
- **Bookmaker odds:** 2.49–3.49–2.47 implies a very tight match; after accounting for margin, away win is only a touch above home win, hence **2** only slightly higher than **1**.
- **Totals/props:** Over 2.5 is favored by the pricing and H2H scoring profile; cards trend under (Finland league games are often not extremely card-heavy), while corners are close to 50/50 with a small lean to over in an even match.
X: 28%
2: 37%
Goals over 2.5: 56%
Goals under 2.5: 44%
Corners over 9.5: 52%
Corners under 9.5: 48%
Cards over 5: 24%
Cards under 5: 76%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Ilves look like the slightly stronger side overall, reflected both in long-term H2H dominance and the market being marginally in their favor, but not by much.
- **Match type:** Regular-season official match, so motivation and first-choice usage should generally be higher than in friendlies.
- **Injuries / suspensions:** No concrete injury/suspension list provided here, so this remains an uncertainty and a structural risk (late news could move probabilities).
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** TPS at home helps balance things, but the odds still price it as close to a coin flip. Weather (around 15°C, moderate wind) suggests fairly normal playing conditions.
- **H2H & recent meetings:** In the last 10 H2H, Ilves have won 9 (including multiple wins in 2026), which supports a slight away lean despite home field.
- **Importance / table context:** As a regular-season fixture, points matter; with near-even odds, expect a competitive game and limited “give-up” risk.
- **Rotations / structural risks:** Unless there is fixture congestion (not provided), heavy rotation is less likely; the main risk is late lineup/injury news.
- **Bookmaker odds:** 2.49–3.49–2.47 implies a very tight match; after accounting for margin, away win is only a touch above home win, hence **2** only slightly higher than **1**.
- **Totals/props:** Over 2.5 is favored by the pricing and H2H scoring profile; cards trend under (Finland league games are often not extremely card-heavy), while corners are close to 50/50 with a small lean to over in an even match.