Ligue 2
Guingamp
Host
VS
Red Star FC
Guest
19.09.2026 15:00
Home win
2.24
Draw
3.34
Away win
2.84
AI prediction
1: 43%
X: 29%
2: 28%
Goals over 2.5: 56%
Goals under 2.5: 44%
Corners over 9.5: 58%
Corners under 9.5: 42%
Cards over 5: 27%
Cards under 5: 73%
Penalty: 16-19%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad quality / baseline strength:** Guingamp get a slight edge from home advantage and generally stable Ligue 2-level structure, but Red Star’s recent direct dominance suggests the gap is not large.
- **Match type:** This is an **official league match** (regular season, Matchday 7), so motivation and lineup strength should be high (less “experimental” than a friendly).
- **Injuries / suspensions:** No verified absences are provided here; treat this as **unknown risk** (late team news could shift odds and probabilities).
- **Home/away, travel, fatigue:** Not a neutral venue; Guingamp avoid travel. Weather is clear and mild, so no major external drag. Early-season scheduling usually means **manageable fatigue**, but rotation is still possible.
- **Head-to-head & style signal:** The last 4 H2H are **4 wins for Red Star** with **high scoring** (average total goals ~5). That pushes the model toward **BTTS/Over** leaning and reduces Guingamp’s win probability despite being home.
- **Importance / standings / motivation:** Matchday 7 implies points matter early for momentum; neither side should “settle” for low intensity.
- **Rotation / structural risks:** Moderate—depending on midweek cup/fixture congestion (not provided). If either coach rotates the back line, it further supports goals.
- **Bookmaker odds:** Market prices (approx.) imply **home ~42–43%, draw ~28–29%, away ~33–35%** before margin. I’m **slightly below** the away side versus market due to home advantage, while still respecting the strong H2H trend. Over 2.5 is supported by the provided totals prices and H2H history.
X: 29%
2: 28%
Goals over 2.5: 56%
Goals under 2.5: 44%
Corners over 9.5: 58%
Corners under 9.5: 42%
Cards over 5: 27%
Cards under 5: 73%
Penalty: 16-19%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad quality / baseline strength:** Guingamp get a slight edge from home advantage and generally stable Ligue 2-level structure, but Red Star’s recent direct dominance suggests the gap is not large.
- **Match type:** This is an **official league match** (regular season, Matchday 7), so motivation and lineup strength should be high (less “experimental” than a friendly).
- **Injuries / suspensions:** No verified absences are provided here; treat this as **unknown risk** (late team news could shift odds and probabilities).
- **Home/away, travel, fatigue:** Not a neutral venue; Guingamp avoid travel. Weather is clear and mild, so no major external drag. Early-season scheduling usually means **manageable fatigue**, but rotation is still possible.
- **Head-to-head & style signal:** The last 4 H2H are **4 wins for Red Star** with **high scoring** (average total goals ~5). That pushes the model toward **BTTS/Over** leaning and reduces Guingamp’s win probability despite being home.
- **Importance / standings / motivation:** Matchday 7 implies points matter early for momentum; neither side should “settle” for low intensity.
- **Rotation / structural risks:** Moderate—depending on midweek cup/fixture congestion (not provided). If either coach rotates the back line, it further supports goals.
- **Bookmaker odds:** Market prices (approx.) imply **home ~42–43%, draw ~28–29%, away ~33–35%** before margin. I’m **slightly below** the away side versus market due to home advantage, while still respecting the strong H2H trend. Over 2.5 is supported by the provided totals prices and H2H history.