Copa del Rey
CD Badajoz
Host
VS
CD Tenerife
Guest
18.11.2026 19:00
Home win
4.87
Draw
3.77
Away win
1.65
AI prediction
1: 18%
X: 24%
2: 58%
Goals over 2.5: 50%
Goals under 2.5: 50%
Corners over 9.5: 52%
Corners under 9.5: 48%
Cards over 5: 28%
Cards under 5: 72%
Penalty: 16-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength/quality:** Tenerife are priced as clear favorites (1.65 away win), which typically indicates a materially stronger squad and deeper bench than Badajoz.
- **Match type (official vs friendly):** The “Round 1” labeling strongly suggests an **official competition** (not a friendly), usually reducing experimental lineups and increasing the favorite’s focus.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No reliable injury/ban list is provided here, so this is a **risk factor**—late team news could shift probabilities.
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Badajoz at home adds some resistance, but Tenerife’s favorite status remains strong; travel is moderate within Spain and shouldn’t be extreme.
- **Form & H2H:** No head-to-head or recent-form data is included, so the forecast leans more on **market odds** than trend analysis.
- **Motivation & stakes:** Round 1 games usually matter (progression/avoidance of upset). Tenerife should be highly motivated to avoid an early exit; Badajoz motivation is also high, but quality gap remains.
- **Rotations/structural risks:** As a stronger side, Tenerife could rotate slightly, which is why draw/upset probabilities are not negligible despite favoritism.
- **Odds translation:** Bookmakers imply roughly **~57% away win / ~25% draw / ~19% home win** after normalization; the 1X2 percentages above closely follow that, with a small adjustment acknowledging away-rotation/upset risk.
X: 24%
2: 58%
Goals over 2.5: 50%
Goals under 2.5: 50%
Corners over 9.5: 52%
Corners under 9.5: 48%
Cards over 5: 28%
Cards under 5: 72%
Penalty: 16-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength/quality:** Tenerife are priced as clear favorites (1.65 away win), which typically indicates a materially stronger squad and deeper bench than Badajoz.
- **Match type (official vs friendly):** The “Round 1” labeling strongly suggests an **official competition** (not a friendly), usually reducing experimental lineups and increasing the favorite’s focus.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No reliable injury/ban list is provided here, so this is a **risk factor**—late team news could shift probabilities.
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Badajoz at home adds some resistance, but Tenerife’s favorite status remains strong; travel is moderate within Spain and shouldn’t be extreme.
- **Form & H2H:** No head-to-head or recent-form data is included, so the forecast leans more on **market odds** than trend analysis.
- **Motivation & stakes:** Round 1 games usually matter (progression/avoidance of upset). Tenerife should be highly motivated to avoid an early exit; Badajoz motivation is also high, but quality gap remains.
- **Rotations/structural risks:** As a stronger side, Tenerife could rotate slightly, which is why draw/upset probabilities are not negligible despite favoritism.
- **Odds translation:** Bookmakers imply roughly **~57% away win / ~25% draw / ~19% home win** after normalization; the 1X2 percentages above closely follow that, with a small adjustment acknowledging away-rotation/upset risk.