UEFA Nations League
Greece
Host
VS
Serbia
Guest
16.11.2026 19:45
Home win
1.35
Draw
4.90
Away win
7.23
AI prediction
1: 66%
X: 20%
2: 14%
Goals over 2.5: 56%
Goals under 2.5: 44%
Corners over 9.5: 54%
Corners under 9.5: 46%
Cards over 5: 28%
Cards under 5: 72%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief rationale (key factors):**
- **Match type & motivation:** This is an **official UEFA Nations League (League A, Group 2), Matchday 6**, so incentives and intensity are real, but the risk of late-game score management exists depending on the table situation.
- **Squad strength (baseline):** Serbia typically have strong individual quality, but the **market strongly favors Greece** here, implying Greece’s current setup/form and/or matchup is rated materially higher for this specific fixture.
- **Home advantage & travel:** Greece at home plus Serbia travel slightly improves Greece’s edge; weather shows **rain**, which can reduce game fluency and slightly increase set-pieces/clearances (supporting a moderate corners lean).
- **Head-to-head & recent meeting:** Recent H2H in 2026 ended **Serbia 1–2 Greece**, reinforcing Greece’s matchup advantage and supporting a home-win baseline.
- **Injuries/suspensions & rotations:** No reliable confirmed absences provided; because it’s an international window, **availability/rotation risk is non-trivial**, but the odds suggest Greece are expected to field a strong XI.
- **Odds check (sanity):** Book odds (~1.35 / 4.9 / 7.23) translate roughly to a heavily favored home side; the probabilities above broadly align, with a slight adjustment upward for Greece due to home edge and recent H2H.
- **Goals/cards/penalty:** Total goals lean **slightly over 2.5** given the price and expected Greece control. Cards lean **under 5** (international games often vary, but no derby/extra edge indicated). Penalty probability kept in the **typical 15–20%** band.
X: 20%
2: 14%
Goals over 2.5: 56%
Goals under 2.5: 44%
Corners over 9.5: 54%
Corners under 9.5: 46%
Cards over 5: 28%
Cards under 5: 72%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief rationale (key factors):**
- **Match type & motivation:** This is an **official UEFA Nations League (League A, Group 2), Matchday 6**, so incentives and intensity are real, but the risk of late-game score management exists depending on the table situation.
- **Squad strength (baseline):** Serbia typically have strong individual quality, but the **market strongly favors Greece** here, implying Greece’s current setup/form and/or matchup is rated materially higher for this specific fixture.
- **Home advantage & travel:** Greece at home plus Serbia travel slightly improves Greece’s edge; weather shows **rain**, which can reduce game fluency and slightly increase set-pieces/clearances (supporting a moderate corners lean).
- **Head-to-head & recent meeting:** Recent H2H in 2026 ended **Serbia 1–2 Greece**, reinforcing Greece’s matchup advantage and supporting a home-win baseline.
- **Injuries/suspensions & rotations:** No reliable confirmed absences provided; because it’s an international window, **availability/rotation risk is non-trivial**, but the odds suggest Greece are expected to field a strong XI.
- **Odds check (sanity):** Book odds (~1.35 / 4.9 / 7.23) translate roughly to a heavily favored home side; the probabilities above broadly align, with a slight adjustment upward for Greece due to home edge and recent H2H.
- **Goals/cards/penalty:** Total goals lean **slightly over 2.5** given the price and expected Greece control. Cards lean **under 5** (international games often vary, but no derby/extra edge indicated). Penalty probability kept in the **typical 15–20%** band.