SJK

1: 56%
X: 25%
2: 19%
Goals over 2.5: 54%
Goals under 2.5: 46%
Corners over 9.5: 55%
Corners under 9.5: 45%
Cards over 5: 22%
Cards under 5: 78%
Penalty: 15-20%

**Explanation (concise):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** SJK are priced as clear favorites and typically have the deeper, more stable squad for this level; Mariehamn tend to be more volatile away from home.
- **Match type:** Regular-season league match (official), so intensity and best XI likelihood are higher than in a friendly.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No concrete absences provided; this adds uncertainty, but the market still strongly leans SJK.
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** SJK at home is a notable edge; Mariehamn’s travel is non-trivial, which usually impacts away performance. Late-season calendar can add fatigue risk, but without schedule data it’s kept neutral.
- **H2H & recent meetings:** Head-to-head overall slightly favors SJK at this venue, and recent SJK home games vs Mariehamn include convincing wins; however Mariehamn won the latest meeting (2–0), which supports keeping the away win probability non-trivial.
- **Motivation / table importance:** Regular-season context implies points matter; with SJK favored, motivation to control the game at home is assumed.
- **Rotations / structural risks:** Moderate—late season can bring rotations, but the odds suggest SJK are still expected to field a competitive XI.
- **Bookmaker odds:** 1.69 / 3.79 / 4.26 imply roughly **55–56% / 24–25% / 20–21%** after margin; the 1X2 probabilities closely follow that, with a slight trim to away win due to SJK’s home edge and stronger home H2H.
- **Totals/BTTS signal:** Over 2.5 at 1.66 indicates a mild lean to 3+ goals; BTTS “Yes” favored (1.62) supports a balanced 2.5-goal line rather than a heavy over.
- **Corners/cards/penalty:** Corners slightly toward **Over 9.5** (favorite at home often drives volume). Cards lean **Under 5** (Finnish league generally moderate discipline). Penalty probability kept in the typical **15–20%** band.