CONCACAF Nations League
El Salvador
Host
VS
Saint Martin
Guest
18.11.2026 01:00
Home win
6.82
Draw
4.91
Away win
1.34
AI prediction
1: 14%
X: 20%
2: 66%
Голове над 2.5: 54%
Голове под 2.5: 46%
Корнери над 9.5: 52%
Корнери под 9.5: 48%
Картони над 5: 28%
Картони под 5: 72%
Дузпа: 16-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** El Salvador are typically the stronger CONCACAF-level side versus Saint Martin, but the **market odds heavily favor the away team (1.34)**, implying either a data/label swap, unusual squad news, or competition-context effects. I lean more toward the odds as the best available “aggregate” signal.
- **Match type / importance:** Marked as a **Final**, so motivation should be high, with less room for experimentation and fewer “friendly-style” rotations.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No reliable list provided; uncertainty increases variance and is another reason to respect bookmaker pricing rather than a pure name-based ranking.
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** El Salvador at home helps them (slightly boosts 1/X), but not enough to override the strong away favoritism and the recent result.
- **H2H & current form signal:** Only one recent meeting is shown (Saint Martin 0–2 El Salvador). That supports the home side, but the sample is tiny and clashes with the odds—so it’s weighted lightly.
- **Tactical/structure risks:** Finals usually mean stronger lineups, but if one team has a deeper squad or better availability, that can swing things; the odds suggest the “away” is expected to control the game.
- **Goals/corners/cards:** With **Over 2.5 priced relatively low (1.45)**, the expectation is for a game with chances; finals can tighten up, so I keep it near 54%. Cards are projected **under 5** as many CONCACAF fixtures don’t consistently reach very high card counts unless there’s a rivalry or knockout desperation. Penalty probability set in a normal range.
X: 20%
2: 66%
Голове над 2.5: 54%
Голове под 2.5: 46%
Корнери над 9.5: 52%
Корнери под 9.5: 48%
Картони над 5: 28%
Картони под 5: 72%
Дузпа: 16-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** El Salvador are typically the stronger CONCACAF-level side versus Saint Martin, but the **market odds heavily favor the away team (1.34)**, implying either a data/label swap, unusual squad news, or competition-context effects. I lean more toward the odds as the best available “aggregate” signal.
- **Match type / importance:** Marked as a **Final**, so motivation should be high, with less room for experimentation and fewer “friendly-style” rotations.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No reliable list provided; uncertainty increases variance and is another reason to respect bookmaker pricing rather than a pure name-based ranking.
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** El Salvador at home helps them (slightly boosts 1/X), but not enough to override the strong away favoritism and the recent result.
- **H2H & current form signal:** Only one recent meeting is shown (Saint Martin 0–2 El Salvador). That supports the home side, but the sample is tiny and clashes with the odds—so it’s weighted lightly.
- **Tactical/structure risks:** Finals usually mean stronger lineups, but if one team has a deeper squad or better availability, that can swing things; the odds suggest the “away” is expected to control the game.
- **Goals/corners/cards:** With **Over 2.5 priced relatively low (1.45)**, the expectation is for a game with chances; finals can tighten up, so I keep it near 54%. Cards are projected **under 5** as many CONCACAF fixtures don’t consistently reach very high card counts unless there’s a rivalry or knockout desperation. Penalty probability set in a normal range.