Liga 1
CD Moquegua
Host
VS
Club Atlético Grau
Guest
16.11.2026 20:15
Home win
1.44
Draw
3.80
Away win
7.00
AI prediction
1: 64%
X: 23%
2: 13%
Голове над 2.5: 48%
Голове под 2.5: 52%
Корнери над 9.5: 54%
Корнери под 9.5: 46%
Картони над 5: 34%
Картони под 5: 66%
Дузпа: 16-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / quality:** Market odds strongly rate CD Moquegua as the superior side at home; Grau are priced as a clear underdog, implying a meaningful gap in overall quality and/or current performance level.
- **Match type:** This is an **official league fixture** (Regular Season, Matchday 17), so motivation and tactical discipline should be higher than in a friendly.
- **Absences (injuries/suspensions):** No confirmed referee/venue and no listed injury/suspension data here; this adds **uncertainty** and slightly increases draw variance, but not enough to overturn the clear 1X bias from pricing.
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Not a neutral venue. Even without exact travel distance, away travel generally benefits the home side; with a late-season round, **rotation risk** exists, but favorites at home still tend to control games.
- **H2H & form proxy:** Only one recorded H2H: Grau won 1–0 at home earlier in the season. That result supports a **lower-scoring profile** rather than suggesting Grau are stronger overall—especially since the current home odds remain very short.
- **Goals market:** Over/Under 2.5 is close to 50/50 (odds slightly lean to under), consistent with a likely **controlled home win** rather than a high-scoring shootout.
- **Corners / cards / penalty:** Corners slightly lean over 9.5 due to expected home pressure; cards lean under 5 given no derby flag and typical league baseline; penalty chance kept moderate (~16–20%) in line with average incidence.
X: 23%
2: 13%
Голове над 2.5: 48%
Голове под 2.5: 52%
Корнери над 9.5: 54%
Корнери под 9.5: 46%
Картони над 5: 34%
Картони под 5: 66%
Дузпа: 16-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / quality:** Market odds strongly rate CD Moquegua as the superior side at home; Grau are priced as a clear underdog, implying a meaningful gap in overall quality and/or current performance level.
- **Match type:** This is an **official league fixture** (Regular Season, Matchday 17), so motivation and tactical discipline should be higher than in a friendly.
- **Absences (injuries/suspensions):** No confirmed referee/venue and no listed injury/suspension data here; this adds **uncertainty** and slightly increases draw variance, but not enough to overturn the clear 1X bias from pricing.
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Not a neutral venue. Even without exact travel distance, away travel generally benefits the home side; with a late-season round, **rotation risk** exists, but favorites at home still tend to control games.
- **H2H & form proxy:** Only one recorded H2H: Grau won 1–0 at home earlier in the season. That result supports a **lower-scoring profile** rather than suggesting Grau are stronger overall—especially since the current home odds remain very short.
- **Goals market:** Over/Under 2.5 is close to 50/50 (odds slightly lean to under), consistent with a likely **controlled home win** rather than a high-scoring shootout.
- **Corners / cards / penalty:** Corners slightly lean over 9.5 due to expected home pressure; cards lean under 5 given no derby flag and typical league baseline; penalty chance kept moderate (~16–20%) in line with average incidence.