Cyprus

1: 30%
X: 29%
2: 41%
Голове над 2.5: 44%
Голове под 2.5: 56%
Корнери над 9.5: 52%
Корнери под 9.5: 48%
Картони над 5: 28%
Картони под 5: 72%
Дузпа: 16-19%

**Explanation (concise):**
- **Squad strength:** Montenegro have the higher baseline quality and typically more top-league representation; Cyprus rely more on domestic-league core. That tilts the matchup slightly toward the away side.
- **Match type & motivation:** This is an **official Nations League group-stage** match (Matchday 6). Late-round games are usually higher-intensity because standings/placement implications are common, limiting “friendly-style” rotations.
- **Absences:** No confirmed injury/suspension list provided here, so the forecast assumes near-standard availability; this adds uncertainty and keeps the draw probability relatively high.
- **Home/away factors:** Cyprus get home advantage, but Montenegro’s travel burden is manageable. Rain/wet conditions can reduce tempo and finishing efficiency, nudging toward **Under 2.5**.
- **H2H & recent edge:** Head-to-head favors Montenegro (Cyprus no wins in 6; Montenegro 3 wins), including a **2–1 Montenegro win in September 2026**, supporting the away win lean.
- **Market (odds):** Bookmakers price Montenegro as favorites (~2.31 vs ~3.08), implying a higher away-win probability; the percentages above broadly align with that while accounting for away-match variance.
- **Cards/corners/penalty:** Nations League games are competitive but not necessarily card-heavy; with rain and a likely tighter game state, corners sit near balanced around 9–10, and penalty probability remains moderate (~16–19%).