Liga F
Real Sociedad
Host
VS
Athletic Club
Guest
15.11.2026 11:00
Home win
1.80
Draw
3.50
Away win
3.60
AI prediction
1: 46%
X: 28%
2: 26%
Goals over 2.5: 44%
Goals under 2.5: 56%
Corners over 9.5: 52%
Corners under 9.5: 48%
Cards over 5: 42%
Cards under 5: 58%
Penalty: 16-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength:** Both are strong, well-coached La Liga sides; Real Sociedad get a meaningful home-edge, but Athletic are very competitive in big games. Overall quality gap is small, so draw/away remain live outcomes.
- **Match type/importance:** This is an **official league match (La Liga, Matchday 11)**, so motivation and intensity should be high (not a friendly).
- **Injuries/suspensions:** Not provided here; this is a **major uncertainty** that could swing probabilities (especially if either side miss key attackers/CBs).
- **Home/travel/fatigue:** Short trip (Basque derby region), so **travel impact is minimal**. Main fatigue risk is the **international window around mid‑November** (potential rotations, late returns, minutes management).
- **H2H & tendencies:** Recent H2H is tight and often low-margin; several recent meetings finished with **0–2 total goals**, supporting **Under 2.5** slightly.
- **Bookmakers:** Odds imply roughly **home ~49–50% / draw ~25–26% / away ~24–25%** before margin; I’m slightly more cautious on the home win due to derby volatility and rotation risk.
- **Cards/corners/penalty:** Derbies tend to be physical (cards moderately high), but “over 5” is not guaranteed without a high-tension match state. Corners lean slightly over 9.5 given both teams’ wing play/pressing phases. Penalty probability kept in a typical league range.
X: 28%
2: 26%
Goals over 2.5: 44%
Goals under 2.5: 56%
Corners over 9.5: 52%
Corners under 9.5: 48%
Cards over 5: 42%
Cards under 5: 58%
Penalty: 16-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength:** Both are strong, well-coached La Liga sides; Real Sociedad get a meaningful home-edge, but Athletic are very competitive in big games. Overall quality gap is small, so draw/away remain live outcomes.
- **Match type/importance:** This is an **official league match (La Liga, Matchday 11)**, so motivation and intensity should be high (not a friendly).
- **Injuries/suspensions:** Not provided here; this is a **major uncertainty** that could swing probabilities (especially if either side miss key attackers/CBs).
- **Home/travel/fatigue:** Short trip (Basque derby region), so **travel impact is minimal**. Main fatigue risk is the **international window around mid‑November** (potential rotations, late returns, minutes management).
- **H2H & tendencies:** Recent H2H is tight and often low-margin; several recent meetings finished with **0–2 total goals**, supporting **Under 2.5** slightly.
- **Bookmakers:** Odds imply roughly **home ~49–50% / draw ~25–26% / away ~24–25%** before margin; I’m slightly more cautious on the home win due to derby volatility and rotation risk.
- **Cards/corners/penalty:** Derbies tend to be physical (cards moderately high), but “over 5” is not guaranteed without a high-tension match state. Corners lean slightly over 9.5 given both teams’ wing play/pressing phases. Penalty probability kept in a typical league range.