UEFA Nations League
Ireland
Host
VS
Israel
Guest
04.10.2026 21:45
Home win
2.03
Draw
3.47
Away win
3.64
AI prediction
1: 47%
X: 28%
2: 25%
Goals over 2.5: 47%
Goals under 2.5: 53%
Corners over 9.5: 54%
Corners under 9.5: 46%
Cards over 5: 22%
Cards under 5: 78%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Ireland rate slightly higher overall and are typically more stable defensively; Israel can be dangerous in transitions but are more volatile away from home.
- **Match type & motivation:** This is an **official UEFA Nations League (League B, Group 3) group-stage** game (Matchday 4), so incentives are strong (points, promotion/relegation implications).
- **Recent H2H & form signal from provided data:** Ireland won the most recent meeting **Israel 0–3 Ireland (27.09.2026)**, which meaningfully boosts Ireland’s win probability and lowers Israel’s. Historical H2H also favors Ireland (no Israel wins in the listed matches).
- **Home advantage / travel / schedule:** Ireland at home plus Israel travel adds a small edge to the hosts. With games in the same window, rotation risk exists but is usually limited in Nations League points matches.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No confirmed absences were provided; probabilities assume near-standard availability. Major late injuries would mainly affect goal and BTTS expectations.
- **Market check (odds):** Book odds (2.03 / 3.47 / 3.64) imply roughly **~47% / 27% / 26%** after normalization; the pick stays close to the market with a slight tilt toward Ireland based on the latest 0–3 H2H.
- **Totals, corners, cards:** Over/Under 2.5 is near 50/50 but slightly **Under** due to Ireland’s likely game control at home. Corners lean **Over 9.5** (wide play/pressure pattern typical when a home favorite pushes). Cards lean **Under 5** given no derby tag and typical Nations League officiating, while penalty probability remains moderate (15–20%).
X: 28%
2: 25%
Goals over 2.5: 47%
Goals under 2.5: 53%
Corners over 9.5: 54%
Corners under 9.5: 46%
Cards over 5: 22%
Cards under 5: 78%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Ireland rate slightly higher overall and are typically more stable defensively; Israel can be dangerous in transitions but are more volatile away from home.
- **Match type & motivation:** This is an **official UEFA Nations League (League B, Group 3) group-stage** game (Matchday 4), so incentives are strong (points, promotion/relegation implications).
- **Recent H2H & form signal from provided data:** Ireland won the most recent meeting **Israel 0–3 Ireland (27.09.2026)**, which meaningfully boosts Ireland’s win probability and lowers Israel’s. Historical H2H also favors Ireland (no Israel wins in the listed matches).
- **Home advantage / travel / schedule:** Ireland at home plus Israel travel adds a small edge to the hosts. With games in the same window, rotation risk exists but is usually limited in Nations League points matches.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No confirmed absences were provided; probabilities assume near-standard availability. Major late injuries would mainly affect goal and BTTS expectations.
- **Market check (odds):** Book odds (2.03 / 3.47 / 3.64) imply roughly **~47% / 27% / 26%** after normalization; the pick stays close to the market with a slight tilt toward Ireland based on the latest 0–3 H2H.
- **Totals, corners, cards:** Over/Under 2.5 is near 50/50 but slightly **Under** due to Ireland’s likely game control at home. Corners lean **Over 9.5** (wide play/pressure pattern typical when a home favorite pushes). Cards lean **Under 5** given no derby tag and typical Nations League officiating, while penalty probability remains moderate (15–20%).