Copa del Rey
Noja SD
Host
VS
Ribadesella CF
Guest
04.10.2026 17:00
Home win
1.71
Draw
3.68
Away win
3.94
AI prediction
1: 52%
X: 26%
2: 22%
Goals over 2.5: 44%
Goals under 2.5: 56%
Corners over 9.5: 49%
Corners under 9.5: 51%
Cards over 5: 24%
Cards under 5: 76%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** The 1X2 market prices the home side as a clear favorite (home win @1.71), implying Noja SD are stronger on average, especially at home.
- **Match type:** Listed as **“Preliminary”** stage/round, so it reads like an **official competitive tie** rather than a friendly—typically fewer rotations and more result-oriented tactics.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No verified absences provided; this adds uncertainty, so the probabilities are kept moderate rather than extreme.
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Not a neutral ground. Even without exact travel distance, the away trip plus home familiarity supports Noja SD. The teams also played **recently (8 days earlier)**, so both may be cautious and well-scouted, which often suppresses goals.
- **H2H & current context:** Only **one recorded H2H**, with Ribadesella winning **1–0** in the previous leg. That result suggests a tight matchup and supports **under 2.5** slightly, while still giving Noja SD an edge to respond at home.
- **Motivation / importance:** A preliminary knockout-style context usually increases pragmatism (risk control), which aligns with lower goal expectation and fewer cards than heated derby scenarios (also marked as **not a local derby**).
- **Bookmaker odds:** Converting the given odds into implied probabilities (and adjusting for margin) points to roughly **~51–52% home / ~24–25% draw / ~23–24% away**, which this forecast closely follows.
X: 26%
2: 22%
Goals over 2.5: 44%
Goals under 2.5: 56%
Corners over 9.5: 49%
Corners under 9.5: 51%
Cards over 5: 24%
Cards under 5: 76%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** The 1X2 market prices the home side as a clear favorite (home win @1.71), implying Noja SD are stronger on average, especially at home.
- **Match type:** Listed as **“Preliminary”** stage/round, so it reads like an **official competitive tie** rather than a friendly—typically fewer rotations and more result-oriented tactics.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No verified absences provided; this adds uncertainty, so the probabilities are kept moderate rather than extreme.
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Not a neutral ground. Even without exact travel distance, the away trip plus home familiarity supports Noja SD. The teams also played **recently (8 days earlier)**, so both may be cautious and well-scouted, which often suppresses goals.
- **H2H & current context:** Only **one recorded H2H**, with Ribadesella winning **1–0** in the previous leg. That result suggests a tight matchup and supports **under 2.5** slightly, while still giving Noja SD an edge to respond at home.
- **Motivation / importance:** A preliminary knockout-style context usually increases pragmatism (risk control), which aligns with lower goal expectation and fewer cards than heated derby scenarios (also marked as **not a local derby**).
- **Bookmaker odds:** Converting the given odds into implied probabilities (and adjusting for margin) points to roughly **~51–52% home / ~24–25% draw / ~23–24% away**, which this forecast closely follows.