Liga Portugal 2
Portimonense SAD
Host
VS
Académica Coimbra
Ospite
15.11.2026 14:00
Vittoria casa
2.24
Pareggio
3.11
Vittoria ospite
2.92
Pronostico IA
1: 43%
X: 29%
2: 28%
Goals over 2.5: 46%
Goals under 2.5: 54%
Corners over 9.5: 52%
Corners under 9.5: 48%
Cards over 5: 26%
Cards under 5: 74%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Portimonense look slightly stronger on paper and at home, but the gap is not large enough to make them a clear-cut favorite—hence a meaningful draw/away share.
- **Match type & motivation:** It’s listed as a **regular-season (Matchday 11)** game, so rotations are less likely than in a friendly; points matter, which typically tightens the match.
- **H2H & scoring profile:** The provided H2H history is very balanced (2W-3D-2L) with a **low average total goals (~1.86)**, nudging the model toward **under 2.5** as the slightly more likely side.
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Standard home edge to Portimonense; no travel-distance or schedule congestion data is provided, so no extra fatigue adjustment beyond the usual.
- **Injuries/suspensions & structural risks:** No confirmed absences are included, so probabilities don’t account for missing key players (this is the main uncertainty).
- **Bookmakers’ odds:** Market prices (2.24 / 3.11 / 2.92) imply roughly **42% / 30% / 32%** before margin; I keep **home slightly ahead**, but pull the away win a bit down and the draw slightly up due to the balanced H2H and typically tighter official fixtures.
- **Discipline & penalty:** With no derby flag and no referee data, **cards-over-5** is rated low; penalty occurrence is kept in a common baseline range (**15–20%**).
X: 29%
2: 28%
Goals over 2.5: 46%
Goals under 2.5: 54%
Corners over 9.5: 52%
Corners under 9.5: 48%
Cards over 5: 26%
Cards under 5: 74%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Portimonense look slightly stronger on paper and at home, but the gap is not large enough to make them a clear-cut favorite—hence a meaningful draw/away share.
- **Match type & motivation:** It’s listed as a **regular-season (Matchday 11)** game, so rotations are less likely than in a friendly; points matter, which typically tightens the match.
- **H2H & scoring profile:** The provided H2H history is very balanced (2W-3D-2L) with a **low average total goals (~1.86)**, nudging the model toward **under 2.5** as the slightly more likely side.
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Standard home edge to Portimonense; no travel-distance or schedule congestion data is provided, so no extra fatigue adjustment beyond the usual.
- **Injuries/suspensions & structural risks:** No confirmed absences are included, so probabilities don’t account for missing key players (this is the main uncertainty).
- **Bookmakers’ odds:** Market prices (2.24 / 3.11 / 2.92) imply roughly **42% / 30% / 32%** before margin; I keep **home slightly ahead**, but pull the away win a bit down and the draw slightly up due to the balanced H2H and typically tighter official fixtures.
- **Discipline & penalty:** With no derby flag and no referee data, **cards-over-5** is rated low; penalty occurrence is kept in a common baseline range (**15–20%**).