Canada

1: 16%
X: 24%
2: 60%
Goals over 2.5: 46%
Goals under 2.5: 54%
Corners over 9.5: 52%
Corners under 9.5: 48%
Cards over 5: 28%
Cards under 5: 72%
Penalty: 15-20%

**Brief explanation:**
- **Squad strength:** Canada are usually stronger on paper and at home, but the market heavily favors Guatemala, suggesting either a matchup-specific edge, expected Canadian absences/rotation, or a competition/context factor not reflected by basic reputation.
- **Match type & motivation:** It’s listed as a **Quarterfinals** tie, so it should be an **official knockout match**—typically lower rotation and higher intensity than a friendly, increasing the value of game-management and away-side pragmatism.
- **H2H & scoring profile:** Recent H2H is tight and low-scoring (four games: Canada 2W-2D, goals 3–1), which supports **Under 2.5** slightly more than Over, even with the odds implying a moderate chance of 2–3 goals.
- **Home advantage / conditions:** Canada at home plus cool, clear weather (around 12°C) is generally fine for tempo, but not a strong driver toward a goal-fest.
- **Odds signal:** Bookmakers price the away win around **1.50** (very strong favorite), so the model leans to “2” despite Canada’s decent H2H; draw remains meaningful for a knockout first/second-leg style context.
- **Discipline & set pieces:** Without derby context and with typical CONCACAF variance, cards are projected **under 5** more often than not; corners hover near the 9.5 line due to a favorite likely generating sustained pressure.

*Note: I don’t have confirmed injury/suspension lists for that date; the probability tilt toward Guatemala is primarily driven by the provided market odds and the knockout setting.*