Segunda División
Granada
Host
VS
UD Las Palmas
Ospite
15.11.2026 15:15
Vittoria casa
1.72
Pareggio
3.58
Vittoria ospite
4.30
Pronostico IA
1: 52%
X: 27%
2: 21%
Голове над 2.5: 52%
Голове под 2.5: 48%
Корнери над 9.5: 56%
Корнери под 9.5: 44%
Картони над 5: 34%
Картони под 5: 66%
Дузпа: 16-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** The market and recent results profile Granada as the stronger side at home, with Las Palmas more limited away—hence a clear but not overwhelming home edge.
- **Match type:** This is an **official league match** (Regular Season, Matchday 14), so intensity and optimal lineups are more likely than in a friendly.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No reliable absences are provided here; this adds uncertainty and keeps the draw probability non-trivial.
- **Home advantage, travel, schedule fatigue:** Granada benefit from home conditions; Las Palmas face mainland travel (usually a mild negative). Mid-November can also carry some rotation/fitness management risk depending on international call-ups, but it’s not quantified in the data.
- **H2H and form signal from recent meetings:** Recent head-to-heads are tight (0-0, 1-1) but Las Palmas won the latest meeting 2-0 at home. Overall H2H is fairly balanced, which supports a meaningful **X** probability.
- **Motivation / table pressure:** As a mid-season league fixture, points matter; that typically reduces “experimental” approaches and supports a structured game plan.
- **Structural/rotation risks:** Possible rotation around November windows can slightly increase variance (helping both X and upset chances), but not enough to flip the favorite.
- **Bookmaker odds (implied):** 1.72 / 3.58 / 4.30 implies roughly **55% / 26% / 22%** (before margin). The forecast is aligned but trims the home win a bit due to balanced H2H and uncertainty on team news.
- **Goals:** Over 2.5 is close to 50/50; odds (1.82 vs 1.98) lean slightly to **Over**, and BTTS “Yes” (1.72) suggests reasonable scoring probability.
- **Corners/cards/penalty:** Corners lean **Over 9.5** due to typical LaLiga wing play and Granada home pressure expectation. Cards lean **Under 5** in absence of derby/referee cues. Penalty chance set in a common mid-range for top-flight matches.
X: 27%
2: 21%
Голове над 2.5: 52%
Голове под 2.5: 48%
Корнери над 9.5: 56%
Корнери под 9.5: 44%
Картони над 5: 34%
Картони под 5: 66%
Дузпа: 16-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** The market and recent results profile Granada as the stronger side at home, with Las Palmas more limited away—hence a clear but not overwhelming home edge.
- **Match type:** This is an **official league match** (Regular Season, Matchday 14), so intensity and optimal lineups are more likely than in a friendly.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No reliable absences are provided here; this adds uncertainty and keeps the draw probability non-trivial.
- **Home advantage, travel, schedule fatigue:** Granada benefit from home conditions; Las Palmas face mainland travel (usually a mild negative). Mid-November can also carry some rotation/fitness management risk depending on international call-ups, but it’s not quantified in the data.
- **H2H and form signal from recent meetings:** Recent head-to-heads are tight (0-0, 1-1) but Las Palmas won the latest meeting 2-0 at home. Overall H2H is fairly balanced, which supports a meaningful **X** probability.
- **Motivation / table pressure:** As a mid-season league fixture, points matter; that typically reduces “experimental” approaches and supports a structured game plan.
- **Structural/rotation risks:** Possible rotation around November windows can slightly increase variance (helping both X and upset chances), but not enough to flip the favorite.
- **Bookmaker odds (implied):** 1.72 / 3.58 / 4.30 implies roughly **55% / 26% / 22%** (before margin). The forecast is aligned but trims the home win a bit due to balanced H2H and uncertainty on team news.
- **Goals:** Over 2.5 is close to 50/50; odds (1.82 vs 1.98) lean slightly to **Over**, and BTTS “Yes” (1.72) suggests reasonable scoring probability.
- **Corners/cards/penalty:** Corners lean **Over 9.5** due to typical LaLiga wing play and Granada home pressure expectation. Cards lean **Under 5** in absence of derby/referee cues. Penalty chance set in a common mid-range for top-flight matches.