UEFA Nations League
North Macedonia
Host
VS
Slovenia
Ospite
16.11.2026 19:45
Vittoria casa
6.05
Pareggio
3.81
Vittoria ospite
1.53
Pronostico IA
1: 16%
X: 25%
2: 59%
Голове над 2.5: 40%
Голове под 2.5: 60%
Корнери над 9.5: 52%
Корнери под 9.5: 48%
Картони над 5: 26%
Картони под 5: 74%
Дузпа: 16-20%
**Brief explanation (concise):**
- **Match type & motivation:** This is an **official Nations League (League B, Group 1) group-stage matchday 6**, so stakes and motivation are typically high, with less room for “friendly-style” experimentation.
- **Squad strength (baseline):** Slovenia profile as the **stronger, more stable side** in recent years (more top‑league regulars, generally higher defensive consistency), which aligns with the **market pricing**. North Macedonia can be competitive at home but usually has a lower ceiling and relies more on moments/transition play.
- **H2H & recent reference point:** Recent H2H includes a **2–0 Slovenia win (Sep 2026)**, supporting the away edge. Overall H2H is slightly in Slovenia’s favor.
- **Home/away & travel:** North Macedonia’s home advantage is real, but **Slovenia’s short regional travel** reduces away-day disruption. Weather shows **rain**, which often slows tempo and slightly favors the more organized defensive side → nudges toward **Under 2.5**.
- **Injuries/suspensions & rotations:** No concrete injury/suspension list provided; because it’s MD6, **rotations depend heavily on table situation** (if qualification/relegation is decided, rotation risk rises). Without evidence, I keep only a **moderate draw probability** and maintain Slovenia as clear favorite.
- **Odds check (bookmakers):** 1X2 odds (approx. 6.05 / 3.81 / 1.53) imply a **strong Slovenia bias**; my probabilities broadly follow that but allow a bit more draw/home resistance due to home advantage and potentially lower-scoring conditions.
- **Cards/penalty/corners:** Nations League games are often **tactical rather than chaotic**, so I lean **Under 5 cards**. Corners are close to 50/50: Slovenia pressure can generate corners, but rain can reduce clean attacking sequences. Penalty probability is kept **moderate** (typical range for international matches).
X: 25%
2: 59%
Голове над 2.5: 40%
Голове под 2.5: 60%
Корнери над 9.5: 52%
Корнери под 9.5: 48%
Картони над 5: 26%
Картони под 5: 74%
Дузпа: 16-20%
**Brief explanation (concise):**
- **Match type & motivation:** This is an **official Nations League (League B, Group 1) group-stage matchday 6**, so stakes and motivation are typically high, with less room for “friendly-style” experimentation.
- **Squad strength (baseline):** Slovenia profile as the **stronger, more stable side** in recent years (more top‑league regulars, generally higher defensive consistency), which aligns with the **market pricing**. North Macedonia can be competitive at home but usually has a lower ceiling and relies more on moments/transition play.
- **H2H & recent reference point:** Recent H2H includes a **2–0 Slovenia win (Sep 2026)**, supporting the away edge. Overall H2H is slightly in Slovenia’s favor.
- **Home/away & travel:** North Macedonia’s home advantage is real, but **Slovenia’s short regional travel** reduces away-day disruption. Weather shows **rain**, which often slows tempo and slightly favors the more organized defensive side → nudges toward **Under 2.5**.
- **Injuries/suspensions & rotations:** No concrete injury/suspension list provided; because it’s MD6, **rotations depend heavily on table situation** (if qualification/relegation is decided, rotation risk rises). Without evidence, I keep only a **moderate draw probability** and maintain Slovenia as clear favorite.
- **Odds check (bookmakers):** 1X2 odds (approx. 6.05 / 3.81 / 1.53) imply a **strong Slovenia bias**; my probabilities broadly follow that but allow a bit more draw/home resistance due to home advantage and potentially lower-scoring conditions.
- **Cards/penalty/corners:** Nations League games are often **tactical rather than chaotic**, so I lean **Under 5 cards**. Corners are close to 50/50: Slovenia pressure can generate corners, but rain can reduce clean attacking sequences. Penalty probability is kept **moderate** (typical range for international matches).