Super League
FC Vaduz
Anfitrión
VS
FC Thun
Invitado
20.09.2026 15:00
Victoria local
2.32
Empate
3.89
Victoria visitante
2.51
Pronóstico de IA
1: 39%
X: 27%
2: 34%
Goals over 2.5: 62%
Goals under 2.5: 38%
Corners over 9.5: 55%
Corners under 9.5: 45%
Cards over 5: 28%
Cards under 5: 72%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Both are typically among the stronger sides at this level; the market rates them very close. Vaduz get a small home-edge, but Thun’s overall level looks comparable, so the gap is minimal.
- **Match type & motivation:** This is an **official league** match (regular season, matchday 9), so intensity and “best available XI” likelihood are higher than in a friendly.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No reliable injury/suspension list is provided here, so this remains an **uncertainty** (a structural risk that could move the probabilities if key players are missing).
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Not a neutral venue; travel is not extreme within Switzerland/Liechtenstein, so **limited travel fatigue** expected. Without the surrounding fixture list, **rotation risk is moderate** rather than high.
- **H2H & scoring tendencies:** The historical H2H favors **Thun** (more wins overall) and shows **high scoring on average (~2.88 goals)**, aligning with higher probabilities for **Over 2.5** and **BTTS-friendly** game scripts.
- **Bookmaker odds:** 1X2 odds (2.32 / 3.89 / 2.51) imply a **very balanced matchup** with Vaduz slightly favored at home; I kept that lean but tightened the draw probability relative to raw odds because these fixtures often produce open games (more decisive outcomes).
- **Cards / penalty:** Swiss league profiles are usually **moderate in cards**, hence Under 5 is favored. Penalty probability is kept in a typical **15–20%** range for a competitive match with expected attacking actions.
X: 27%
2: 34%
Goals over 2.5: 62%
Goals under 2.5: 38%
Corners over 9.5: 55%
Corners under 9.5: 45%
Cards over 5: 28%
Cards under 5: 72%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Both are typically among the stronger sides at this level; the market rates them very close. Vaduz get a small home-edge, but Thun’s overall level looks comparable, so the gap is minimal.
- **Match type & motivation:** This is an **official league** match (regular season, matchday 9), so intensity and “best available XI” likelihood are higher than in a friendly.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No reliable injury/suspension list is provided here, so this remains an **uncertainty** (a structural risk that could move the probabilities if key players are missing).
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Not a neutral venue; travel is not extreme within Switzerland/Liechtenstein, so **limited travel fatigue** expected. Without the surrounding fixture list, **rotation risk is moderate** rather than high.
- **H2H & scoring tendencies:** The historical H2H favors **Thun** (more wins overall) and shows **high scoring on average (~2.88 goals)**, aligning with higher probabilities for **Over 2.5** and **BTTS-friendly** game scripts.
- **Bookmaker odds:** 1X2 odds (2.32 / 3.89 / 2.51) imply a **very balanced matchup** with Vaduz slightly favored at home; I kept that lean but tightened the draw probability relative to raw odds because these fixtures often produce open games (more decisive outcomes).
- **Cards / penalty:** Swiss league profiles are usually **moderate in cards**, hence Under 5 is favored. Penalty probability is kept in a typical **15–20%** range for a competitive match with expected attacking actions.