DFB Pokal
VfL Bochum 1848
Anfitrión
VS
1. FSV Mainz 05
Invitado
27.10.2026 17:00
Victoria local
4.50
Empate
3.90
Victoria visitante
1.62
Pronóstico de IA
1: 17%
X: 24%
2: 59%
Goals over 2.5: 60%
Goals under 2.5: 40%
Corners over 9.5: 52%
Corners under 9.5: 48%
Cards over 5: 33%
Cards under 5: 67%
Penalty: 15-20%
Main reasons (brief):
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Mainz project as the clearly stronger side overall (pricing and historical edge support this). Bochum at home helps, but not enough to close the gap fully.
- **Match type:** Listed as an **official** competition “Round 2” fixture (not a friendly), so stronger lineups and higher intensity are more likely than in exhibition games.
- **Injuries / suspensions:** No concrete absentee list is provided here; this adds uncertainty (if either side has key missing starters, probabilities could shift).
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Bochum have home advantage and no travel burden; Mainz travel is moderate. With no schedule density data provided, only a mild fatigue adjustment is assumed.
- **H2H and matchup pattern:** Head-to-head is heavily Mainz-leaning (11 wins in 16), including recent convincing results. This supports **away win** and **goals**.
- **Motivation / standings:** Early-round context typically reduces “must-not-lose” behavior for big favorites only slightly; Mainz still have strong incentive to take 3 points.
- **Rotations / structural risks:** If Mainz are managing a congested period they could rotate, which is the main risk to the away-win probability; however, the market still makes them a strong favorite.
- **Bookmakers’ odds:** 4.5 / 3.9 / 1.62 implies a strong away favorite; the goal lines (Over 2.5 at ~1.57) and BTTS Yes (~1.61) point to a game more likely to have **3+ goals** and **both teams scoring** than not.
X: 24%
2: 59%
Goals over 2.5: 60%
Goals under 2.5: 40%
Corners over 9.5: 52%
Corners under 9.5: 48%
Cards over 5: 33%
Cards under 5: 67%
Penalty: 15-20%
Main reasons (brief):
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Mainz project as the clearly stronger side overall (pricing and historical edge support this). Bochum at home helps, but not enough to close the gap fully.
- **Match type:** Listed as an **official** competition “Round 2” fixture (not a friendly), so stronger lineups and higher intensity are more likely than in exhibition games.
- **Injuries / suspensions:** No concrete absentee list is provided here; this adds uncertainty (if either side has key missing starters, probabilities could shift).
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Bochum have home advantage and no travel burden; Mainz travel is moderate. With no schedule density data provided, only a mild fatigue adjustment is assumed.
- **H2H and matchup pattern:** Head-to-head is heavily Mainz-leaning (11 wins in 16), including recent convincing results. This supports **away win** and **goals**.
- **Motivation / standings:** Early-round context typically reduces “must-not-lose” behavior for big favorites only slightly; Mainz still have strong incentive to take 3 points.
- **Rotations / structural risks:** If Mainz are managing a congested period they could rotate, which is the main risk to the away-win probability; however, the market still makes them a strong favorite.
- **Bookmakers’ odds:** 4.5 / 3.9 / 1.62 implies a strong away favorite; the goal lines (Over 2.5 at ~1.57) and BTTS Yes (~1.61) point to a game more likely to have **3+ goals** and **both teams scoring** than not.