J1 League
Avispa Fukuoka
Anfitrión
VS
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Invitado
19.09.2026 12:00
Victoria local
3.80
Empate
3.57
Victoria visitante
1.86
Pronóstico de IA
1: 24%
X: 27%
2: 49%
Голове над 2.5: 48%
Голове под 2.5: 52%
Корнери над 9.5: 54%
Корнери под 9.5: 46%
Картони над 5: 22%
Картони под 5: 78%
Дузпа: 16-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Sanfrecce Hiroshima generally have the higher ceiling and deeper squad, reflected both historically and by the market pricing; Avispa are typically more compact/defensive and less consistent in chance creation.
- **Match type:** This is an **official league match** (regular season), so motivation and strongest available lineups are more likely than in a friendly.
- **H2H & matchup trend:** In 17 meetings, Hiroshima lead clearly (9W vs 3W), and recent H2H still leans their way despite a couple of tight results (including a 2–2 and an away win for Avispa earlier in 2026). Net effect: away side still favored, but not “free.”
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Not a neutral venue; Avispa’s home edge slightly increases draw/home upset probability. Without schedule/travel-distance details, fatigue impact is treated as neutral-to-moderate.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No reliable injury/ban list provided here, so probabilities include extra uncertainty (a hidden key absence could move the line).
- **Rotations / structural risks:** Early matchday context and possible concurrent competitions can cause rotation risk—more relevant for Hiroshima due to depth and higher ambitions; this supports the draw a bit.
- **Bookmaker odds:** 1X2 odds (3.80 / 3.57 / 1.86) imply roughly **25% / 27% / 48%** after normalization; the forecast is aligned with that, with a small nod to Avispa’s home factor.
- **Goals / corners / cards / penalty:** Market totals (O2.5 1.82 vs U2.5 1.98) indicate a near coin-flip on 2.5 goals; slight lean to **Under** due to Avispa’s tendency toward tighter games and a strong away favorite often managing game state. Corners slightly **Over 9.5** in expectation of away pressure. Cards lean **Under 5** (J-League often moderate unless a rivalry; this isn’t a derby). Penalty chance kept in a typical mid range.
X: 27%
2: 49%
Голове над 2.5: 48%
Голове под 2.5: 52%
Корнери над 9.5: 54%
Корнери под 9.5: 46%
Картони над 5: 22%
Картони под 5: 78%
Дузпа: 16-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Sanfrecce Hiroshima generally have the higher ceiling and deeper squad, reflected both historically and by the market pricing; Avispa are typically more compact/defensive and less consistent in chance creation.
- **Match type:** This is an **official league match** (regular season), so motivation and strongest available lineups are more likely than in a friendly.
- **H2H & matchup trend:** In 17 meetings, Hiroshima lead clearly (9W vs 3W), and recent H2H still leans their way despite a couple of tight results (including a 2–2 and an away win for Avispa earlier in 2026). Net effect: away side still favored, but not “free.”
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Not a neutral venue; Avispa’s home edge slightly increases draw/home upset probability. Without schedule/travel-distance details, fatigue impact is treated as neutral-to-moderate.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No reliable injury/ban list provided here, so probabilities include extra uncertainty (a hidden key absence could move the line).
- **Rotations / structural risks:** Early matchday context and possible concurrent competitions can cause rotation risk—more relevant for Hiroshima due to depth and higher ambitions; this supports the draw a bit.
- **Bookmaker odds:** 1X2 odds (3.80 / 3.57 / 1.86) imply roughly **25% / 27% / 48%** after normalization; the forecast is aligned with that, with a small nod to Avispa’s home factor.
- **Goals / corners / cards / penalty:** Market totals (O2.5 1.82 vs U2.5 1.98) indicate a near coin-flip on 2.5 goals; slight lean to **Under** due to Avispa’s tendency toward tighter games and a strong away favorite often managing game state. Corners slightly **Over 9.5** in expectation of away pressure. Cards lean **Under 5** (J-League often moderate unless a rivalry; this isn’t a derby). Penalty chance kept in a typical mid range.