Saudi Pro League
Al-Ahli
Anfitrión
VS
Al-Nassr
Invitado
20.11.2026 17:30
Victoria local
3.00
Empate
3.65
Victoria visitante
2.07
Pronóstico de IA
1: 29%
X: 27%
2: 44%
Goals over 2.5: 62%
Goals under 2.5: 38%
Corners over 9.5: 56%
Corners under 9.5: 44%
Cards over 5: 34%
Cards under 5: 66%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad quality / baseline strength:** Al-Nassr rate slightly higher overall (more top-end talent and depth), so they get the edge despite playing away.
- **Match type & motivation:** This is an **official league match (regular season, Matchday 9)**, so intensity and best lineups are more likely than in a friendly.
- **Injuries / suspensions:** No confirmed absences are provided here; that adds uncertainty, but not enough to overturn the market lean toward Al-Nassr.
- **Home advantage & travel / fatigue:** Al-Ahli’s home advantage narrows the gap, but travel within Saudi Arabia is typically manageable; no travel-distance/red-flag schedule data is given.
- **H2H & scoring profile:** Head-to-head is **slightly in Al-Nassr’s favor** (11W vs 9W) and historically **high-scoring** (avg ~3.07 goals), supporting **Over 2.5** and **BTTS-lean** game script. Recent meetings include 3-2, 2-0, 2-3, 4-3—volatility is high.
- **Bookmakers’ odds:** 3.00 / 3.65 / 2.07 implies roughly **(after margin removal)** a clear lean to **Al-Nassr**, with draw relatively less attractive—aligned with the 1X2 probabilities above.
- **Corners / cards / penalty:** With two attack-minded sides and a goal-friendly H2H, corners trend slightly to **Over 9.5**. Cards are projected **below 5** more often than not (derby flag is false), while a **penalty 15–20%** is a standard rate for matches with frequent box entries and higher scoring potential.
X: 27%
2: 44%
Goals over 2.5: 62%
Goals under 2.5: 38%
Corners over 9.5: 56%
Corners under 9.5: 44%
Cards over 5: 34%
Cards under 5: 66%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad quality / baseline strength:** Al-Nassr rate slightly higher overall (more top-end talent and depth), so they get the edge despite playing away.
- **Match type & motivation:** This is an **official league match (regular season, Matchday 9)**, so intensity and best lineups are more likely than in a friendly.
- **Injuries / suspensions:** No confirmed absences are provided here; that adds uncertainty, but not enough to overturn the market lean toward Al-Nassr.
- **Home advantage & travel / fatigue:** Al-Ahli’s home advantage narrows the gap, but travel within Saudi Arabia is typically manageable; no travel-distance/red-flag schedule data is given.
- **H2H & scoring profile:** Head-to-head is **slightly in Al-Nassr’s favor** (11W vs 9W) and historically **high-scoring** (avg ~3.07 goals), supporting **Over 2.5** and **BTTS-lean** game script. Recent meetings include 3-2, 2-0, 2-3, 4-3—volatility is high.
- **Bookmakers’ odds:** 3.00 / 3.65 / 2.07 implies roughly **(after margin removal)** a clear lean to **Al-Nassr**, with draw relatively less attractive—aligned with the 1X2 probabilities above.
- **Corners / cards / penalty:** With two attack-minded sides and a goal-friendly H2H, corners trend slightly to **Over 9.5**. Cards are projected **below 5** more often than not (derby flag is false), while a **penalty 15–20%** is a standard rate for matches with frequent box entries and higher scoring potential.