Cruzeiro

1: 33%
X: 28%
2: 39%
Goals over 2.5: 52%
Goals under 2.5: 48%
Corners over 9.5: 57%
Corners under 9.5: 43%
Cards over 5: 42%
Cards under 5: 58%
Penalty: 15-20%

**Brief explanation:**
- **Squad strength:** Palmeiras project as the stronger roster overall (depth, consistency), but Cruzeiro at home narrows the gap.
- **Match type/importance:** This is an **official league game** (regular season, Matchday 35), typically high-stakes late in the calendar—more tactical discipline, fewer risks early.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No confirmed absences provided here, so probabilities assume near-standard availability (main risk is late-season rotation).
- **Home/away, travel, fatigue:** Cruzeiro benefit from home conditions; Palmeiras face travel and potential accumulated fatigue. Still, Palmeiras’ deeper squad mitigates this better than most.
- **H2H and form signal from recent meetings:** Recent head-to-head results are **tight and draw-leaning** (1-1, 0-0), supporting a meaningful draw probability and balanced goal expectation.
- **Rotations/structural risks:** Round 35 often brings **rotation** (fitness management, suspensions risk, or prioritizing other targets), which can increase variance—hence not an extreme favorite either way.
- **Bookmaker odds:** Market prices lean to **Palmeiras** (away win shortest). I keep Palmeiras slightly higher than the draw and home win, but not dominant due to Cruzeiro’s home edge and the close H2H profile.