Copa del Rey
AE Prat
Anfitrión
VS
CF Sant Rafel
Invitado
11.10.2026 18:00
Victoria local
1.24
Empate
5.44
Victoria visitante
8.30
Pronóstico de IA
1: 72%
X: 18%
2: 10%
Goals over 2.5: 58%
Goals under 2.5: 42%
Corners over 9.5: 52%
Corners under 9.5: 48%
Cards over 5: 22%
Cards under 5: 78%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Explanation (concise):**
- **Squad strength / quality:** AE Prat look clearly stronger on baseline level; the most direct indicator in your data is the very recent 1–5 away win over Sant Rafel, suggesting a sizeable quality gap and/or matchup advantage.
- **Match type:** Labeled **“Preliminary”** (official competition stage rather than a friendly), so motivation should be solid, especially for the favorite to avoid an upset.
- **Injuries / suspensions:** No reliable injury/suspension list is provided; this adds uncertainty, but not enough to overturn the overall edge implied by odds and the last H2H.
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Prat at home and no signals of extreme travel burden; with a week since the last meeting (Sep 27 → Oct 4), fatigue should be manageable.
- **Form & H2H:** Only one recorded H2H and it was decisive (Sant Rafel 1–5 Prat). That supports a high home-win probability and a moderate lean to **over 2.5**.
- **Importance / rotations / structural risks:** As a preliminary round, Prat may still rotate if they feel comfortable, which slightly raises draw/upset risk and keeps goal expectation from being extreme.
- **Bookmaker odds:** 1.24 / 5.44 / 8.30 strongly price a home win. Converting odds to implied probabilities (and normalizing) points to roughly **~71% / ~16% / ~13%**, consistent with the 72/18/10 split.
- **Corners/cards/penalty:** A dominant favorite often generates corners, but if the game becomes one-sided early, tempo can drop (hence only a small lean to over 9.5). Lower-tier preliminary games are often not card-heavy unless it turns into a frustrated underdog performance; thus **under 5 cards** is favored. Penalty chance sits in a typical range.
X: 18%
2: 10%
Goals over 2.5: 58%
Goals under 2.5: 42%
Corners over 9.5: 52%
Corners under 9.5: 48%
Cards over 5: 22%
Cards under 5: 78%
Penalty: 15-20%
**Explanation (concise):**
- **Squad strength / quality:** AE Prat look clearly stronger on baseline level; the most direct indicator in your data is the very recent 1–5 away win over Sant Rafel, suggesting a sizeable quality gap and/or matchup advantage.
- **Match type:** Labeled **“Preliminary”** (official competition stage rather than a friendly), so motivation should be solid, especially for the favorite to avoid an upset.
- **Injuries / suspensions:** No reliable injury/suspension list is provided; this adds uncertainty, but not enough to overturn the overall edge implied by odds and the last H2H.
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Prat at home and no signals of extreme travel burden; with a week since the last meeting (Sep 27 → Oct 4), fatigue should be manageable.
- **Form & H2H:** Only one recorded H2H and it was decisive (Sant Rafel 1–5 Prat). That supports a high home-win probability and a moderate lean to **over 2.5**.
- **Importance / rotations / structural risks:** As a preliminary round, Prat may still rotate if they feel comfortable, which slightly raises draw/upset risk and keeps goal expectation from being extreme.
- **Bookmaker odds:** 1.24 / 5.44 / 8.30 strongly price a home win. Converting odds to implied probabilities (and normalizing) points to roughly **~71% / ~16% / ~13%**, consistent with the 72/18/10 split.
- **Corners/cards/penalty:** A dominant favorite often generates corners, but if the game becomes one-sided early, tempo can drop (hence only a small lean to over 9.5). Lower-tier preliminary games are often not card-heavy unless it turns into a frustrated underdog performance; thus **under 5 cards** is favored. Penalty chance sits in a typical range.