Aris Thessaloniki

1: 56%
X: 26%
2: 18%
Goals over 2.5: 48%
Goals under 2.5: 52%
Corners over 9.5: 53%
Corners under 9.5: 47%
Cards over 5: 42%
Cards under 5: 58%
Penalty: 15-20%

**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Aris are priced as clear favorites and, at baseline, should have the deeper and more stable top-flight-level roster than Iraklis, which supports a strong home lean.
- **Match type & motivation:** This is an **official league match (Regular Season, Matchday 5)**, so there’s no “friendly” rotation incentive; points matter.
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Thessaloniki derby dynamics aside, Aris at home plus no extreme travel burden favors the home side; weather looks mild, so no major external penalty.
- **H2H & game script:** Historical H2H shows many tight games and a relatively low average total goals (~2.13), which nudges the model slightly toward **Under 2.5** despite Aris being favored.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No confirmed referee and no provided injury/suspension list here; that adds uncertainty, but not enough to flip the favorite.
- **Odds (market signal):** Bookmakers at **1.64 / 3.65 / 5.12** imply roughly **~57% / 26% / 18%** (after normalization), which is closely reflected in the 1X2 probabilities above. Over/Under and BTTS pricing suggests a fairly balanced goal expectation, hence near 50/50 for O/U 2.5.