Hibernian

1: 52%
X: 26%
2: 22%
Голове над 2.5: 56%
Голове под 2.5: 44%
Корнери над 9.5: 58%
Корнери под 9.5: 42%
Картони над 5: 28%
Картони под 5: 72%
Дузпа: 15-20%

**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** These sides are relatively close by Scottish Premiership standards, but Hibernian at home rates slightly higher here, reflected in a stronger win probability.
- **Match type & importance:** It’s an **official league match (Regular season, Matchday 7)**, so motivation and first-choice selections are typically higher than in friendlies.
- **Home advantage & travel:** Aberdeen’s trip to Edinburgh is manageable, so travel fatigue is limited, but **home advantage** still meaningfully boosts Hibs.
- **Head-to-head & recent pattern:** The H2H is competitive, with several decisive results and a few high-scoring games; recent meetings include both teams winning away/home, suggesting volatility but not a clear long-term dominance.
- **Goals expectation:** Market lines (Over 2.5 at ~1.71 and BTTS Yes ~1.69) imply a **moderate-to-good chance of 2–3+ goals** and both teams contributing—hence Over 2.5 slightly favored.
- **Cards & penalty:** Not flagged as a derby and no referee data available; combined with typical league baselines, cards lean **under 5**, while a **penalty remains a low-to-moderate event** (15–20%).
- **Bookmaker odds check:** 1X2 odds (~1.75 / 3.76 / 4.27) translate to a market leaning clearly toward Hibernian; the probabilities above follow that direction but still respect draw/away upset risk.
- **Injuries/suspensions & rotations:** No reliable injury/suspension list provided for this date; that uncertainty is why the draw and away upset probabilities aren’t pushed too low (late team news could shift the edge).