J1 League
Shimizu S-Pulse
Хозяин
VS
JEF United Chiba
Гость
19.09.2026 12:30
Победа хозяев
1.88
Ничья
3.47
Победа гостей
3.82
Прогноз ИИ
1: 50%
X: 27%
2: 23%
Голове над 2.5: 52%
Голове под 2.5: 48%
Корнери над 9.5: 56%
Корнери под 9.5: 44%
Картони над 5: 28%
Картони под 5: 72%
Дузпа: 15-20%
**Brief reasoning (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Shimizu S-Pulse are rated stronger overall and get a meaningful home edge; JEF United Chiba are competitive but priced as the underdog.
- **Match type & motivation:** This is an **official league** match (regular season, matchday 8), so lineups should be close to best available; points matter.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No reliable information provided here, so no adjustment is made (this is a structural uncertainty/risk).
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Not a neutral ground; Chiba’s travel is moderate domestically. Weather shows **rain + high temperature**, which can slow tempo but also increase defensive errors and set-piece volume.
- **H2H & matchup history:** Historical H2H strongly favors Shimizu (5W-1D-0L in the listed sample), supporting the home-win lean, though these meetings are old and less predictive.
- **Odds (market signal):** 1X2 odds (1.88 / 3.47 / 3.82) imply roughly **~50% home, ~27% draw, ~23% away** after normalization—this anchors the 1X2 probabilities. Totals are close (O2.5 1.91 vs U2.5 1.88), hence near 50/50.
- **Rotations/structural risks:** Early-season round can still bring some rotation, but as an official match the risk is moderate rather than high.
- **Corners/cards/penalty:** Rain tends to boost **set pieces/corners** slightly; J-League typically isn’t extremely card-heavy, so **under 5 cards** is preferred. Penalty probability stays in the usual mid-range.
X: 27%
2: 23%
Голове над 2.5: 52%
Голове под 2.5: 48%
Корнери над 9.5: 56%
Корнери под 9.5: 44%
Картони над 5: 28%
Картони под 5: 72%
Дузпа: 15-20%
**Brief reasoning (key factors):**
- **Squad strength / baseline quality:** Shimizu S-Pulse are rated stronger overall and get a meaningful home edge; JEF United Chiba are competitive but priced as the underdog.
- **Match type & motivation:** This is an **official league** match (regular season, matchday 8), so lineups should be close to best available; points matter.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No reliable information provided here, so no adjustment is made (this is a structural uncertainty/risk).
- **Home advantage / travel / fatigue:** Not a neutral ground; Chiba’s travel is moderate domestically. Weather shows **rain + high temperature**, which can slow tempo but also increase defensive errors and set-piece volume.
- **H2H & matchup history:** Historical H2H strongly favors Shimizu (5W-1D-0L in the listed sample), supporting the home-win lean, though these meetings are old and less predictive.
- **Odds (market signal):** 1X2 odds (1.88 / 3.47 / 3.82) imply roughly **~50% home, ~27% draw, ~23% away** after normalization—this anchors the 1X2 probabilities. Totals are close (O2.5 1.91 vs U2.5 1.88), hence near 50/50.
- **Rotations/structural risks:** Early-season round can still bring some rotation, but as an official match the risk is moderate rather than high.
- **Corners/cards/penalty:** Rain tends to boost **set pieces/corners** slightly; J-League typically isn’t extremely card-heavy, so **under 5 cards** is preferred. Penalty probability stays in the usual mid-range.