CD Alcoyano

1: 16%
X: 24%
2: 60%
Goals over 2.5: 42%
Goals under 2.5: 58%
Corners over 9.5: 52%
Corners under 9.5: 48%
Cards over 5: 32%
Cards under 5: 68%
Penalty: 15-20%

**Brief explanation (key factors):**
- **Squad strength/quality:** Mallorca’s baseline squad quality and depth are clearly higher than Alcoyano’s (top-flight vs lower-league profile), which heavily tilts the match toward the away side.
- **Match type:** The structure (“Round 1”) strongly suggests an **official cup tie**, which usually reduces experimentation compared to friendlies, though favorites can still rotate.
- **Injuries/suspensions:** No reliable injury/suspension list is provided; this adds uncertainty and slightly increases the draw/low-score probability.
- **Home/away, travel, fatigue:** Alcoyano have home advantage, but Mallorca’s travel within Spain is manageable. Rotation risk for Mallorca exists if this sits in a busy calendar block.
- **Form & head-to-head:** No head-to-head/form data is supplied here, so probabilities lean more on team strength and market pricing than recent trends.
- **Motivation/importance:** In a cup opener, the underdog is typically highly motivated; the favorite’s main risk is intensity/rotation rather than ability.
- **Bookmakers’ odds:** The market (≈6.09 / 3.91 / 1.52) implies a strong Mallorca edge; the probabilities above broadly align, with a modest uplift to the draw due to potential rotation and away-game variance.
- **Goals/corners/cards:** Cup ties between mismatched teams often trend **under 2.5** unless the favorite scores early. Corners are around the 9–10 line (Mallorca pressure vs Alcoyano defending deep). Cards are projected lower-moderate unless the game stays close late. Penalty probability is in a typical range for a single match.